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On Being Certain

andrew

andrew

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Wanted to post a quick book rec: On Being Certain: Believing You Are Right Even When You're Not

It's not flawless, but it's provocative, and includes some fun brain science.

Quick takeaway: Certainty is an emotion. Just a feeling. Let that sink in. Ever been "certain" and wrong?...

My favorite takeaway: The Challenger Study. Where were you when the Challenger blew up? (I was on the phone with the program director of our local PBS station, and he said "I've gotta go, the space shuttle just blew up" and hung up on me.) In this study, researchers a year or two after the event asked subjects to report on where they were when they got the news and asked them to write their recollections down. Then, maybe ten years later, they contacted as many of those people as they could find and asked them again where they were. Answers varied widely, and here's the kicker: In many of the cases where the story had changed, and the subjects were shown their own written reports and asked about the discrepancy, the subjects agreed that that was their handwriting but said "but that's not what happened"(!).

Maybe it's the lawyer in me, and the flashbacks to my Evidence class and impeaching a witness with a prior inconsistent statement, but I find that fascinating. Given the choice between their present recollection and their written testimony from years prior, they "go with their gut" over against their previous written statement. What?!

Anyway, submitted for your consideration....
 
There's a book reviews section on here if you wanted to put this in there Andrew.
So, where was I when the Challenger blew up? No idea, I was 3 and didn't learn anything about it until I was an adult. Interesting concept though, that people change their minds without realising it.
There was a woman I was following on Facebook, and after there was some drama surrounding her I was certain she'd changed her name. Absolutely positive. She'd changed the spelling of her first name. I told two friends, one who agreed and one who disagreed. Then I found some screen shots I'd taken of her posts from a month or so earlier and found that her name was still spelled the exact same way. I have no idea why I thought she'd changed it in the first place, but no one could have changed my mind except for that proof.
Also, this all reminds me of the Mandela effect. That went round everywhere and suddenly my pretty serious Christian friends were telling me that 'they'(never found out who 'they' were) had travelled back in time and changed verses in the bible like the wolf laying down with the lamb etc. No amount of me trying to have a rational discussion with them and explain the hundred ways that made no logical sense would work, they were certain.
 
Whew, this is a big memory for me. I was home from school because of snow, but we were intently watching. Why? My step-sister was one of the finalists in the teacher-in-space competition.
 
Great post
I use this concept in the realm of faith. What we call knowing is really believing beyond doubt.
To walk in faith that pleases God we must, as much as possible, determine the will of God in advance.
Then be prepared for the doubts that wil surely follow.
One of Satan's favorite tools is "hath God said"
This applies to marriage, ministry, and all acts of faith.
 
Turns out I was also 3 when Challenger exploded, and have no memory of it. I'll admit I had to Google the date. For some reason, I had gotten it in my mind that it happened in 1979, 3 years before before my birth. (But I wasn't... certain).

For me, the big event was the destruction of the twin towers when I was in college.
 
FollowingHim2 said:
There's a book reviews section on here if you wanted to put this in there Andrew.
Click to expand...
Well, I thought about that, but I figured this wasn't really a "review" as much as a tip, or a "hey, check this out".

FollowingHim2 said:
So, where was I when the Challenger blew up? No idea, I was 3 and didn't learn anything about it until I was an adult.
Click to expand...
For my parents' generation, it was "Where are you when Kennedy was shot?" I was five, so I have no idea. :rolleyes:

I remember the moon walk (TV at junior high school) and the twin towers (woke up to the news being reported on the radio station I was using for an alarm).

I really derailed my own thread, though! :eek: While we're all sharing memories, don't forget to check out the book and the points it makes about the emotion of "being certain"! :cool::p
 
Any married person knows this. Try recollecting your marriage, honeymoon, or birth of your first child together. It can get contentious!

For the record, I was in English class for Challenger. We couldn't figure out why our teacher was crying.

If you remember a television in school playing it, are you sure it wasn't 911? Televisions running live in 1986 weren't so prevalent in my neck of the woods...just saying.
 
Mojo said:
If you remember a television in school playing it, are you sure it wasn't 911? Televisions running live in 1986 weren't so prevalent in my neck of the woods...just saying.
Click to expand...
I appear to be demonstrating my own point. I checked the timing of the first moon walk (1969), and I wasn't in junior high yet! :eek: However, based on the timing, I may have been confabulating the viewing of a moon landing with the moon landing with Neil Armstrong and Buzz Aldrin—the Apollo XV mission (first deployment of the Lunar Rover) would fit the time frame I was thinking of, and may be what I actually saw. See what I mean?... ;)

Meanwhile, 9/11 was definitely me in bed waking up to an alarm clock radio that was carrying news of the attack. Caught it after the first plane and before the second. The commentator went nuts when news came out of the second attack....
 
9/11 was memorable as I was getting ready for work before my wife woke to make breakfast. IIRC, in my time zone, both towers had already been hit and were still burning.

Strange how little noise there is when jets are grounded. The days after were strange.
 
Mojo said:
Strange how little noise there is when jets are grounded. The days after were strange.
Click to expand...

I had forgotten about that. It was strange for sure. Just think, 100 years ago they would have found all this noise we have very strange.
 
aineo said:
I had forgotten about that. It was strange for sure. Just think, 100 years ago they would have found all this noise we have very strange.
Click to expand...
They would find us communicating via wireless frequency waves even stranger.
But New York in 1914 was a pretty noisy place...just saying :D
 
Just as an aside 'certainty' is a hallmark of left brain rationality. It requires certainty, and if it lacks it . . . it will manufacture it. There is actually a fairly considerable amount of science on the subject. A wonderful read for a summary of present research on Left and Right Hemisphere engagement is The Master and His Emissary by Ian McGilchrist.
 
Divine comment on human "certainty": Jdg 8:11 And Gideon ... smote the host: for the host was secure.
 
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