Serious theologians, hold your nose and look away. Mathematicians and scientists, this one's for you!
I was having an interesting conversation at work today, and thought this is something that the more mathematical minds here might enjoy grappling with - DiscussingTheTopic in particular. I was discussing different religions with some atheists, and got onto Pascal's wager:
But this simplistic logic has been challenged over the years, most obviously by the fact that there are a lot more religions in the world than just two. So, if you add further religions into the "game", how does it actually change the result?
Let's say for instance that there are only three options, to keep it simple for now - Atheism, Islam, and Christianity. Now, we've got 3 possible choices, and 3 possible right answers, 9 combinations now instead of 4. So if you are an:
Atheist: Atheism correct, dead. Islam correct, hell. Christianity correct, hell.
Moslem: Atheism correct, dead. Islam correct, heaven. Christianity correct, hell.
Christian: Atheism correct, dead. Islam correct, hell. Christianity correct, heaven.
So we still see there is no point in being an atheist, all the possible endings for you when you die are negative. But it looks initially like Christianity and Islam are equally good choices, each gives you a 1 in 3 chance of getting to heaven (this is obviously if you didn't actually look into which was most likely to be correct, and were just picking by chance).
But it's not quite that simple. Fundamentally, Islam is a religion of works, and Moslems essentially believe that God will weigh your good deeds against your bad deeds in deciding whether to send you to heaven or hell. This is highly simplistic of course, but depending on how you interpret the Quran, this may mean that anyone who does enough good stuff will get to heaven. Possibly even a Christian. On the other hand, a Moslem cannot be fully assured of salvation, because they never know whether they've done enough good stuff - even Mohammed stated he could not be certain of his salvation.
Christianity however is a religion of grace, you achieve salvation by choosing to accept it as a free gift from God, works have nothing to do with it.
So a good Christian might still get to heaven even if Islam were correct. A Moslem however cannot receive salvation if Christianity is correct. So now the probabilities change.
Atheist: Atheism correct, dead. Islam correct, hell. Christianity correct, hell. 0/3 chance of heaven.
Moslem: Atheism correct, dead. Islam correct, probably heaven, possibly hell. Christianity correct, hell. <1/3 chance of heaven.
Christian: Atheism correct, dead. Islam correct, probably hell, possibly heaven. Christianity correct, heaven. >1/3 chance of heaven.
Adding Islam to the wager has altered the chance of gaining heaven through choosing Christianity from 1/2 to something slightly greater than 1/3, depending on the presumed probability of a Christian gaining salvation through Islam. However it has still left Christianity as the best option. It has also put Atheism in an even worse position - instead of having a 1/2 chance of hell they have a 2/3 chance of hell.
Continuing with this simplified approach to theology, virtually every other religion is a religion of works. All offer something good if you do enough good stuff, and something bad if you don't. Like Islam, they do not give assurance of salvation. But at the same time, some of them leave the possibility open that anyone who is good enough might get the reward.
The more religions you add to the wager, the lower the likelihood of achieving heaven through Christianity. However Christianity will still remain the best choice, because it has assurance of salvation if it is correct combined with a slight chance of salvation through works if something else is correct and you do enough good stuff.
And as the number of religions approaches infinity, the probability of an atheist going to hell approaches 1. :geek:
I was having an interesting conversation at work today, and thought this is something that the more mathematical minds here might enjoy grappling with - DiscussingTheTopic in particular. I was discussing different religions with some atheists, and got onto Pascal's wager:
In other words, if there is were no way of knowing whether God was real or not, you would still be better to follow him. If you decide to be an atheist, and are correct, when you die there is nothing, so you gain nothing. But if you die and are wrong, you go to hell, and lose everything. If you decide to be a Christian, and atheism is actually correct, when you die you're just as dead as if you were an atheist, so you've lost nothing by being a Christian. But if you are correct, you go to heaven. So you can only lose being an atheist, and only win being a Christian.Blaise Pascal said:
But this simplistic logic has been challenged over the years, most obviously by the fact that there are a lot more religions in the world than just two. So, if you add further religions into the "game", how does it actually change the result?
Let's say for instance that there are only three options, to keep it simple for now - Atheism, Islam, and Christianity. Now, we've got 3 possible choices, and 3 possible right answers, 9 combinations now instead of 4. So if you are an:
Atheist: Atheism correct, dead. Islam correct, hell. Christianity correct, hell.
Moslem: Atheism correct, dead. Islam correct, heaven. Christianity correct, hell.
Christian: Atheism correct, dead. Islam correct, hell. Christianity correct, heaven.
So we still see there is no point in being an atheist, all the possible endings for you when you die are negative. But it looks initially like Christianity and Islam are equally good choices, each gives you a 1 in 3 chance of getting to heaven (this is obviously if you didn't actually look into which was most likely to be correct, and were just picking by chance).
But it's not quite that simple. Fundamentally, Islam is a religion of works, and Moslems essentially believe that God will weigh your good deeds against your bad deeds in deciding whether to send you to heaven or hell. This is highly simplistic of course, but depending on how you interpret the Quran, this may mean that anyone who does enough good stuff will get to heaven. Possibly even a Christian. On the other hand, a Moslem cannot be fully assured of salvation, because they never know whether they've done enough good stuff - even Mohammed stated he could not be certain of his salvation.
Christianity however is a religion of grace, you achieve salvation by choosing to accept it as a free gift from God, works have nothing to do with it.
So a good Christian might still get to heaven even if Islam were correct. A Moslem however cannot receive salvation if Christianity is correct. So now the probabilities change.
Atheist: Atheism correct, dead. Islam correct, hell. Christianity correct, hell. 0/3 chance of heaven.
Moslem: Atheism correct, dead. Islam correct, probably heaven, possibly hell. Christianity correct, hell. <1/3 chance of heaven.
Christian: Atheism correct, dead. Islam correct, probably hell, possibly heaven. Christianity correct, heaven. >1/3 chance of heaven.
Adding Islam to the wager has altered the chance of gaining heaven through choosing Christianity from 1/2 to something slightly greater than 1/3, depending on the presumed probability of a Christian gaining salvation through Islam. However it has still left Christianity as the best option. It has also put Atheism in an even worse position - instead of having a 1/2 chance of hell they have a 2/3 chance of hell.
Continuing with this simplified approach to theology, virtually every other religion is a religion of works. All offer something good if you do enough good stuff, and something bad if you don't. Like Islam, they do not give assurance of salvation. But at the same time, some of them leave the possibility open that anyone who is good enough might get the reward.
The more religions you add to the wager, the lower the likelihood of achieving heaven through Christianity. However Christianity will still remain the best choice, because it has assurance of salvation if it is correct combined with a slight chance of salvation through works if something else is correct and you do enough good stuff.
And as the number of religions approaches infinity, the probability of an atheist going to hell approaches 1. :geek:
:evil: 
