A Thought Experiment: Birth Rates, Excess Deaths, and Rising Disability Rates

[ModernPolygamy]

I would like to propose a thought experiment for the community.

Let's assume the following things as a given. Let's not question the if or why's but just take them as assumed fact for our make-believe scenario.

You suddenly have:

• 40% decline in birth rates
• 30% rise in the rate of people dying
• 20% of the remaining population disabled in some way (mentally or physically), which would render them incapable of "producing" so they are a net drain (economically as well as resource/food wise)

...now let's say that's going to be sustained over 10-15 years.

So the thought experiment is, what happens? What happens to society?

Let's look at this politically, economically, and from whatever novel angles you want to approach it from.

 

[ModernPolygamy]

I'll go first. This fuels inflation, regardless of if spending continues wildly or not. You have the same money supply in the hands of fewer people. Now you could argue that there would be more resources/goods available to fewer people as well, but that would not take into account that less would be being produced as well.

Mix that with knee-jerk spending in a cycle that can't be stopped, and high to extreme inflation would be logical.

Stocks in specific industries are an open question and one I'm very interested in. Likely anything for the "sick at home" crowd would be good...but what else and why?

Food may or may not become increasingly squeezed but to compensate more mass farming can be done, to a certain extent...but the issue with shortages of manufactured goods continues and worsens indefinitely.

Open question: What are the jobs with the longest training/experience requirements, where someone can not easily be replaced? These will be the pain points.

 

[FollowingHim]

Interestingly, if you were just to reduce the birth rate you'd get an ageing population - but by increasing the death rate also, many of whom will be elderly, that effect may be neutralised. So the result may be a population reduction, but one that is well designed to still have a reasonable age structure. It's almost as though it was planned that way...

First big effect would be reduced demand for anything to do with pregnancy, childcare, primary & secondary education etc. Don't be in those industries.

Trades where the average age of tradespeople has been rising over time would be an area to watch for future opportunities.

But the biggest effect will be governments trying to "do something" to fix all the different issues that arise. Expect a massive growth in the size of the state, and increased regulatory hurdles and taxes in the way of doing anything yourself. That will be the massive lead balloon that crashes the economy and living standards far more than the raw effect of the demographics would.

 

[frederick]

I would like to propose a thought experiment for the community.

Let's assume the following things as a given. Let's not question the if or why's but just take them as assumed fact for our make-believe scenario.

You suddenly have:

• 40% decline in birth rates
• 30% rise in the rate of people dying
• 20% of the remaining population disabled in some way (mentally or physically), which would render them incapable of "producing" so they are a net drain (economically as well as resource/food wise)

...now let's say that's going to be sustained over 10-15 years.

So the thought experiment is, what happens? What happens to society?

Let's look at this politically, economically, and from whatever novel angles you want to approach it from.

Economically... since my long lost uncles Bill Gates and George Soros will pass away and leave me their fortunes, I expect a positive economic affect personally. Apart from that this world system is going the way God says it will so I'm not surprised or overly concerned. Those who trust in themselves and government will have a lot to worry about.

 

[rockfox]

We are already seeing the affects of this in the labor supply, which should mean rising wages and the potential for more men to be able to support a family on one income. Though this will also keep inflation up.

Countervailing pressure is the Great Reset and immigration.

 

[MeganC]

But the biggest effect will be governments trying to "do something" to fix all the different issues that arise.

I think a lot of these governments already had 'solutions' in mind but what they were lacking were the problems to justify their solutions.

So Fauci weaponized COVID and unleashed it on the world in order to justify mass lockdowns, social controls, mass surveillance, extra-judicial imprisonments (quarantine camps), and repression of people who would question government narratives.

 

[Torahobservantmmck86]

Ah I love thought experiment discussions! as i always like to calculate/strategically analyze everything that is going on the world setting.

With everything going on with supply chains, economic policies, and social dynamics of morals and family structure I do think we have hit a point of critical mass. In my opinion the family structure has been slowly being attacked over the past 100 years or so and slowly at first but probably really started to ramp up at about the 1960's or so time frame until now. I would say the same for the economics of the world as well with Keynesian policies mainly being in control and enacted since about the same time frame.

I do know the common consensus is that everything will continue to decay rapidly from here, but I have an opinion that while the trajectory seems to be continuing we will still hit points of correction and swing back. I know I am seeing it now and am a little perplexed by it. I think the printing money cycles and the repercussions of the Keynesian style of economics is starting to come to the forefront of thought lately. We have noticed that there seems to be a movement of people waking up and returning more to the conservative and proper moral ways of living... even yearning for the more simpler things like stay at home wife with milling of flour and making linen clothes and etc. and especially in the simpler living of growing food and homesteading to a certain extent.

Now as to the question on my mind and I'm sure on many others here is how will this output into polygyny? This is something I'm trying to watch and be hopeful about. Now will it cause a needed resurgence into this way of life? I don't know at this point. I do know from being on the polygamy dating sites that I do not see it at the level needed. it may take a catalyst type of event happening to bring this lifestyle to the forefront, I'm not completely sure what that catalyst looks like, perhaps an influencer bringing this lifestyle to the open with all the truly positive ways of living this life. but I do not know if or when a catalyst may even happen at all for polygamy. its possible it will remain the way it is now.

Lastly to bring up the points of the economy and supply chains and etc, there is something going on now that I think many are TRULY underestimating right now. and that is Artificial Intelligence. this is something I have been keeping tabs on lately and I see a common consensus that many are not realizing of what is about to come. I think we are at the foot of a exponential curve mountain that is going to reshape the foundation of every sector. The revolution of the assembly lines in auto manufacturing, the invention of the computer, and the invention of the internet did reshape the world pretty dramatically. but this is going to make those events looks like Childs play compared to what's coming. I'm even at a loss to try and calculate what's coming exactly but its going to be going very fast!

 

[The Revolting Man]

I don’t think the scenario is inflationary but deflationary. Your money supply stays the same but there is suddenly a vastly reduced demand for goods plus the injection of of all the dead people’s goods unto secondary markets.

End result is the price collapse of goods and commodities. Although I guess services could skyrocket.

 

[rockfox]

I do know the common consensus is that everything will continue to decay rapidly from here, but I have an opinion that while the trajectory seems to be continuing we will still hit points of correction and swing back. I know I am seeing it now and am a little perplexed by it. I think the printing money cycles and the repercussions of the Keynesian style of economics is starting to come to the forefront of thought lately. We have noticed that there seems to be a movement of people waking up and returning more to the conservative and proper moral ways of living... even yearning for the more simpler things like stay at home wife with milling of flour and making linen clothes and etc. and especially in the simpler living of growing food and homesteading to a certain extent.

Now as to the question on my mind and I'm sure on many others here is how will this output into polygyny? This is something I'm trying to watch and be hopeful about.

The pendulum is swinging back culturally but the Satanic system is resisting it mightily. Too soon to tell how it will go but if the social trend wins then polygamy will likely fall out of favor. If the System wins then polygamy will still fall out of favor; I think the push for it was temporary as part of the destruction of marriage and it will be suppressed in favor of polyamory.

 

[ModernPolygamy]

Now as to the question on my mind and I'm sure on many others here is how will this output into polygyny? This is something I'm trying to watch and be hopeful about. Now will it cause a needed resurgence into this way of life? I don't know at this point. I do know from being on the polygamy dating sites that I do not see it at the level needed. it may take a catalyst type of event happening to bring this lifestyle to the forefront, I'm not completely sure what that catalyst looks like, perhaps an influencer bringing this lifestyle to the open with all the truly positive ways of living this life. but I do not know if or when a catalyst may even happen at all for polygamy. its possible it will remain the way it is now.

I had not considered the polygyny angle (ironic, isn't it?), but I have the answer to how it can connect if the scenario plays out. If most men can't make babies, those that can will be in higher demand...the only choice, for those that want a coherent family structure and not a sperm donor, is polygyny. ...and the type that don't want that are more likely to be infertile by that point anyway, so all roads lead home. ...in other words, eat healthy everybody!

Lastly to bring up the points of the economy and supply chains and etc, there is something going on now that I think many are TRULY underestimating right now. and that is Artificial Intelligence. this is something I have been keeping tabs on lately and I see a common consensus that many are not realizing of what is about to come. I think we are at the foot of a exponential curve mountain that is going to reshape the foundation of every sector. The revolution of the assembly lines in auto manufacturing, the invention of the computer, and the invention of the internet did reshape the world pretty dramatically. but this is going to make those events looks like Childs play compared to what's coming. I'm even at a loss to try and calculate what's coming exactly but its going to be going very fast!

Probably best in a separate thread if there is enough interest, but I have some experience from the AI angle and would be glad to bounce thoughts around or what-if's. I have built neural networks capable of learning basic math from scratch as a proof of concept (took less than 15 minutes for it to learn to a 98% success rate on a desktop computer) and have worked with GPT-3 extensively to write over 1 million words of content. My work also involves manipulating AI for desired outcomes. ...most AI's trust their inputs...corrupt those and the AI is worthless.

I encourage everyone to conduct this experiment. On your (yuck) Facebook account, only click on ads for things you don't like. Not only will this cost those people money, but it will train the AI with incorrect profile data for you....useful for advertising and things that may come. If you don't see any ads for things you don't like, then you have already given it too much of a glimpse into the real you. To fix this, pull up some articles on The Atlantic and browse around for 5 minutes. Shortly, they will start testing showing you different ads....be sure to click on these to reinforce the false assumptions it will make.

Like I said, best for another thread, but it's very important for everyone to catch on to how fragile AI is and how easily it can be made worthless, if enough people know how. Its data is its weak point. Feed it junk.

 

[frederick]

I encourage everyone to conduct this experiment. On your (yuck) Facebook account, only click on ads for things you don't like. Not only will this cost those people money, but it will train the AI with incorrect profile data for you....useful for advertising and things that may come. If you don't see any ads for things you don't like, then you have already given it too much of a glimpse into the real you. To fix this, pull up some articles on The Atlantic and browse around for 5 minutes. Shortly, they will start testing showing you different ads....be sure to click on these to reinforce the false assumptions it will make.

Like I said, best for another thread, but it's very important for everyone to catch on to how fragile AI is and how easily it can be made worthless, if enough people know how. Its data is its weak point. Feed it junk.

Hahaha, I like that. A friend told me to use the word "bomb" in my messages and occasionally search for bomb related articles.... then wait for the spooks to turn up at my door. It would be fun, he said. ... Maybe not.

 

[MeganC]

On another forum I sometimes post "alarming" keywords (that I will not post here!) just to mess with the people who spy on everyone!

 

[Maddog]

I had not considered the polygyny angle (ironic, isn't it?), but I have the answer to how it can connect if the scenario plays out. If most men can't make babies, those that can will be in higher demand...the only choice, for those that want a coherent family structure and not a sperm donor, is polygyny. ...and the type that don't want that are more likely to be infertile by that point anyway, so all roads lead home. ...in other words, eat healthy everybody!




Probably best in a separate thread if there is enough interest, but I have some experience from the AI angle and would be glad to bounce thoughts around or what-if's. I have built neural networks capable of learning basic math from scratch as a proof of concept (took less than 15 minutes for it to learn to a 98% success rate on a desktop computer) and have worked with GPT-3 extensively to write over 1 million words of content. My work also involves manipulating AI for desired outcomes. ...most AI's trust their inputs...corrupt those and the AI is worthless.

I encourage everyone to conduct this experiment. On your (yuck) Facebook account, only click on ads for things you don't like. Not only will this cost those people money, but it will train the AI with incorrect profile data for you....useful for advertising and things that may come. If you don't see any ads for things you don't like, then you have already given it too much of a glimpse into the real you. To fix this, pull up some articles on The Atlantic and browse around for 5 minutes. Shortly, they will start testing showing you different ads....be sure to click on these to reinforce the false assumptions it will make.

Like I said, best for another thread, but it's very important for everyone to catch on to how fragile AI is and how easily it can be made worthless, if enough people know how. Its data is its weak point. Feed it junk.

So then the old adage "Garbage In Garbage Out" is even more true?