Serious developments in Iraq and Iran

[FollowingHim]

Summary of events (there's always a massive backstory to everything, but you have to start somewhere, there's a long-term timeline leading up to it here if you want to drill back a couple of years):

December 27: Rocket attack on an Iraqi military base in Kirkuk. One US contractor (mercenary) killed.

December 29: US attacks Kataib Hezbollah, who it blames for the previous attack. 25 fighters killed, 55 wounded. This was said to be in retaliation for the December 27 attack, but was completely out of proportion to it.

December 31: Angry Iraqis, including members of Kataib Hezbollah, who viewed the above attack as unjustified or completely out of proportion, storm US embassy in Baghdad.

January 3: US assassinates in a drone strike at Baghdad airport:
- Qassem Soleimani. Key Iranian general responsible for training and advising Shia militias in Iraq, the Syrian army, Hezbollah, and other Iranian allies. Widely regarded in the Middle East (if not in the US media) as being one of the most important people in the defeat of ISIS, as he trained and advised so many of the forces responsible for their defeat in both Iraq and Syria.
- Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis. Iraqi politician, leader of Kataib Hezbollah, and deputy leader of the Peoples Mobilisation Forces (PMF), a union of Shia and Christian militias that are formally part of the Iraqi defence force, being officially recognised due to the Iraqi military requiring their manpower in order to defeat ISIS.
- Several other key commanders of Iraqi Shia militia groups.
The Iraqi government were informed of the strike just beforehand, and refused permission for it. The US proceeded anyway.

Key outcomes as of 5 January:
- NATO suspends all training in Iraq, focussing on defense of bases.
- Kataib Hezbollah tells Iraqi military to stay away from US bases from Sunday evening. Initial attacks begin on some US bases.
- Trump threatens to attack 52 major Iranian targets if they attempt to retaliate for the killing of Soleimani.
- Iraqi parliament votes to expel all foreign troops from the country.
- Iraq lodges complaint with UN Security Council over violation of their sovereignty by the USA.

Iraq is aware the US and Iran may go to war, but don't want that war to be fought in Iraq. They've suffered through more than enough war. So the major tension is between the Iraq government, who'd like the US to peacefully withdraw, and the militia groups, who would like to avenge the deaths of their comrades.

Can you see the USA peacefully withdrawing from Iraq? No, I can't either. Can you see Iran not responding in some way to the assassination of a key general? No, they have to also, any country would. Some sort of war is inevitable (I'm not saying WWIII, but some sort of localised war at least), and it looks like the Iraqi people will once again bear the horrors of it, alongside the Iranians and whoever else gets dragged in.

Warmongers and assassins are evil, whatever flag they are waving. Blessed are the peacemakers.

Pray for peace.

 

[FollowingHim]

Iran just declared they will no longer limit their uranium enrichment.

If the world is lucky, this will be their 'peaceful' response to Soleimani's death, and they won't directly launch any attacks of their own. If so, war could be avoided - but at the cost of all the bureaucratic efforts over the past many years to try and prevent Iran developing a nuclear bomb.

Of course, if the US or Israel decide to attack them for this, rather than seeing it as fair tit-for-tat, then things will just get ugly very fast.

And even if Iran decides that this is enough of a response for Soleimani's death, the many Shia militia groups throughout the middle east are still out for vengence for his death and the deaths of the Iraqi commanders in that strike, so some retaliation will occur even if it is not by Iran.

 

[Mojo]

I generally tend to stay out of these types of discussions, but am I too naive to think that on the eve of impeachment, major international events are brewing?

 

[Slumberfreeze]

I generally tend to stay out of these types of discussions, but am I too naive to think that on the eve of impeachment, major international events are brewing?

I don't think so. As a Trump fan, I'm looking forward to the impeachment process and am somewhat irritated that it isn't moving fast enough. Maybe you know something I don't but I don't know who stands to profit from distracting attention from the impeachment proceedings. I would assume the leftists would like people to pay attention to it, because they think that it will be helpful to them. I want people to pay attention to it because I think they are grievously wrong about the outcome.

I suppose if I were... say... literal Pelosi I'd appreciate everyone forgetting this complete non-starter of a tactic, but... I don't know. It just seems so dumb.

I'm more inclined to believe there is no political power that is actually driving the narrative of events right now. I think Jesus has taken the wheel and we are all going off-roading.

 

[PeteR]

I think Jesus has taken the wheel and we are all going off-roading

My gut keeps telling me similar.... WWI started with an assassination. ..

WW3 has long been prophesied as a Mideast war... and, we've pissed off enough nations that half the planet would live the pretext to be able to through munitions this direction... nevermind the deep state would live to blame a global conflagration on Trump...

Interesting days!

 

[FollowingHim]

I expect those who want a war with Iran, both in the USA and Israel, see this as the right time for several potential reasons and have decided to ramp up the provocation. Trump is just an easily manipulated tool.

There's a minor link to impeachment as they will want to do this while Trump is there, they've had enough time now to put him in an information bubble that makes him controllable, and however slight the risk of him being removed it's still an unknown factor that is best avoided. But I highly doubt that the world really cares about internal US politics enough for it to be the primary cause. This is deeper and more sinister.

 

[FollowingHim]

I'm more inclined to believe there is no political power that is actually driving the narrative of events right now. I think Jesus has taken the wheel and we are all going off-roading.

I was with you until you ascribed it to Jesus. When people are being blown up, I'd assume Satan is at the wheel.

 

[PeteR]

I was with you until you ascribed it to Jesus. When people are being blown up, I'd assume Satan is at the wheel.

Had to ponder this for a minute because IF this is prophecy, then God has to be in control, even if allowing the adversary to act.... so, a question...

Who caused the judgment/destruction of Egypt before the Exodus?

 

[FollowingHim]

If God is allowing Satan to take the wheel, Satan's still at the wheel.

I find it very concerning when Christians get excited about war, as if being prophecied somehow makes it 'good'. If God tells you in a dream that your son is going to crash his car and die, and he does, is his death good just because God predicted it? Of course not. Maybe the prophecy was a call to action (He wanted you to prevent it), or maybe it was preparing you for the inevitable, but either way the event is still bad.

Evil is prophecied to warn us to be prepared. It is not because the evil itself is something to rejoice about when we see it.

And it's certainly not something we should seek to hasten.

 

[PeteR]

Please don't misunderstand. I am a combat veteran. I hate war. People get hurt, some die. Most often it is the 'innocents' that pay the price.

Theologically, we can't ascribe all war to Satan, even by allowance. God commanded Israel to be the instrument of judgment on multiple ocassions. That is not handing the wheel to Satan, that is God exercising His divine right to dash the clay pots He made. Hard truth, but truth.

Is this His purpose now? Is this prophecy? I have no idea. Only hindsight really answers that question. In the moment, we should search ourselves, not joy in it, and leave ascribing it to God or Satan for a future generation...

 

[Cap]

I believe the outcome of all this has been calculated. It's going to be difficult but there is a predicted outcome. Q followers probably know these more than others.

 

[Slumberfreeze]

If God is allowing Satan to take the wheel, Satan's still at the wheel.

I see what you mean. Personally I have no desire to see the war that I think is coming, and I pray for extension of grace and repentance to stave it off. However I know that God didn't allow the Israelites to take Canaan until the sin of the Amorites had reached full measure. Which means to me that there is a time when judgment is due, when evil must be punished. If a prophesies war comes, then it comes at the right time and because it must happen and because it will accomplish the Lord's purpose in it. What is good and what is evil in this case? Mercy is good and so is justice. Excess of comfort, which is good, leads many to hell by blinding them to God. Using Jonah as an example, evil is prophesied as a call to repentance. If repentance doesn't happen .... well then burn it all down. Even if the worst happens to me and mine, at least God is not mocked. And some time after that I'll stand up and dust myself off in the last day.

 

[Pacman]

 

[PeteR]

They correctly say, 'David and Goliath' but conveniently forgot that David won, despite all of Goliath's bragadocious monologuing or his expensive and well appointed armor.

My point, odds, big odds to US, but God has used lesser nations than Iran to spank relatively more powerful nations than the US...

 

[FollowingHim]

Theologically, we can't ascribe all war to Satan, even by allowance. God commanded Israel to be the instrument of judgment on multiple ocassions. That is not handing the wheel to Satan, that is God exercising His divine right to dash the clay pots He made. Hard truth, but truth.

However I know that God didn't allow the Israelites to take Canaan until the sin of the Amorites had reached full measure. Which means to me that there is a time when judgment is due, when evil must be punished.

This is true. However, is it relevant?
Who is the "bad side" that needs to be punished? What for?
Is there a "good side" that God is using to spank the "bad side", as in the time of Israel & Canaan?
Or is there even a "not-quite-so-bad side" that God is temporarily using to spank the "bad side", before He wipes them out also, as in Babylon's conquest of Judah?

All I see is Israel and the USA siding with the Sunni nations to provoke a Sunni / Shia religious war, to let the Muslims kill each other off, presumably in the hope that they'll weaken each other enough to allow Israel to expand into the vacuum to create 'greater Israel'. I can't see much of a good or bad side in a war between Sunni and Shia, just a lot of evil and suffering all around. And those who provoke it are the worst of the lot, because they are the warmakers, the opposite of the peacemakers whom God blesses, and are therefore cursed by God whatever side they are on (I am speaking of key characters on all sides of this that are pushing for war, not against one nation in particular).

And all this fighting happens once again in the cradle of Christianity, with our own brothers and sisters being killed or, at best, driven from their homes, as rarely-mentioned collateral damage.

@Pacman, the bigger the army, the more the killing. Whoever wins is almost irrelevant, as what I care about, and what I believe God cares about, is the people who die along the way.

 

[PeteR]

I don't claim goodness or badness... both sides deserve the rod, the US all the more. Still, God is absolutely in control.

War is bad. Agreed. Can we, you or I, unequivocally say, this is not God's will or His intent?

I've come to a place of handling the things He gives me to handle and leaving the rest up to Him... I pray. I have a son in the military. But, I won't say this is bad or good. It's not mine to judge.

 

[Pacman]

This is true. However, is it relevant?
Who is the "bad side" that needs to be punished? What for?
Is there a "good side" that God is using to spank the "bad side", as in the time of Israel & Canaan?
Or is there even a "not-quite-so-bad side" that God is temporarily using to spank the "bad side", before He wipes them out also, as in Babylon's conquest of Judah?

All I see is Israel and the USA siding with the Sunni nations to provoke a Sunni / Shia religious war, to let the Muslims kill each other off, presumably in the hope that they'll weaken each other enough to allow Israel to expand into the vacuum to create 'greater Israel'. I can't see much of a good or bad side in a war between Sunni and Shia, just a lot of evil and suffering all around. And those who provoke it are the worst of the lot, because they are the warmakers, the opposite of the peacemakers whom God blesses, and are therefore cursed by God whatever side they are on (I am speaking of key characters on all sides of this that are pushing for war, not against one nation in particular).

And all this fighting happens once again in the cradle of Christianity, with our own brothers and sisters being killed or, at best, driven from their homes, as rarely-mentioned collateral damage.

@Pacman, the bigger the army, the more the killing. Whoever wins is almost irrelevant, as what I care about, and what I believe God cares about, is the people who die along the way.

As far as “good side and bad side” the fact is that no major players (nation or group as a whole) in this conflict are the good side. Every politically recognized nation or group that is involved is by and large wicked. Not one of them is actually following YHWH they all deserve judgment and yes the USA is included in this statement. That’s not to say there are no “righteous” individuals among those groups there certainly are some. How this conflict plays out is out of my control and I pray that “innocents” are kept out of harms way although the likelihood of that is basically nil.

 

[Slumberfreeze]

Who is the "bad side" that needs to be punished? What for?
Is there a "good side" that God is using to spank the "bad side", as in the time of Israel & Canaan?

No good side as far as I can tell. I do think that Israel emerges as the victor.... kinda. But they'll pay a high price. (Is 17, mostly)

Personally I think that this prophesied war leads to Greater Israel that is depopulated. And then worldwide anit-semitism fills it back up, and then Israel emerges as a superpower to replace America, and then ezekiel 38 etc etc. Whether I have any idea of what I'm talking about or whether even if I'm seeing it right it has anything to do with what's going on now is not something I could really comment on.

But I suppose that it is possible that those the Lord favors will be just fine even if the nations just beat the hell out of each other. I'm reminded of when Israel was led away into captivity, the captain of the guard left the poor of the land to keep it. I'm reminded that because of their lifestyle, the Rechabites would certainly be regarded as the poor in the land.

 

[FollowingHim]

So Trump has stated the US is not leaving Iraq despite the vote, which is unsurprising. But his reasoning could hardly be more arrogant:

We have a very extraordinarily expensive air base that’s there. It cost billions of dollars to build. Long before my time. We’re not leaving unless they pay us back for it ...
If they do ask us to leave, if we don’t do it in a very friendly basis. We will charge them sanctions like they’ve never seen before ever. It’ll make Iranian sanctions look somewhat tame.

Is he talking about Al Asad? That was captured and occupied by the USA during the Iraq war against the will of Iraq, and then re-occupied at the request of Iraq in 2014 to fight ISIS. 2014 is only 2 years before Trump's election, so any money spent then would hardly be "long before my time". I presume he's talking about work the US did on the base during their occupation during and following the Iraq war. If so, he's asking the Iraqi government to pay part of the cost of the US invasion of their own country, years ago, and before the USA was even invited back in!

But even if he's talking about expenses since 2014, by attacking recognised Iraqi military forces (which the PMF is), he's essentially committed an act of war against Iraq, a clear breach of whatever agreement they had regarding the US presence in the country. He's killed the very people they were brought in to train. So he really doesn't have a legal leg to stand on, any such agreement is made null and void by such a serious breach.

If the request to leave becomes official, with this refusal to leave, the USA will officially become an illegal invader of Iraq once again.

 

[PeteR]

No good side as far as I can tell. I do think that Israel emerges as the victor.... kinda. But they'll pay a high price. (Is 17, mostly)

Personally I think that this prophesied war leads to Greater Israel that is depopulated. And then worldwide anit-semitism fills it back up, and then Israel emerges as a superpower to replace America, and then ezekiel 38 etc etc. Whether I have any idea of what I'm talking about or whether even if I'm seeing it right it has anything to do with what's going on now is not something I could really comment on.

Very nice (and plausible) sequence of events... prophetically, it is that time....