Fort Russ News is doing a good job of publishing analysis on the Iranian jet shootdown, and Steve's right, this really doesn't look like an accident. It's clear what we're being told is wrong - but it's very unclear what the truth is. Key points to note:
An accident is implausible, because:
- The claimed missile system will not shoot down a civilian airliner with a working transponder. The transponder was on, as flight tracking data is available. So the system would have clearly identified it as civilian.
- The missile system is short-range, line-of-sight. The command system includes very good camera systems, that would make the jet clearly visible to the operator. So it would be impossible to mistake for a missile.
- In fact, the plane was so close the running lights would have been visible to the naked eye.
- The jet was climbing, a missile would be descending. The jet was travelling far, far slower than a cruise missile. Even a completely automated system (which this is not) would never mistake the two.
It may not have been shot down by the IRGC missile system at all.
- Those missiles are large enough to be seen on civilian radar. If this system were used, it would have been seen by the civilian radar systems and air traffic control, and there would have been no confusion - from the start this would have been called a shootdown by a missile.
- However, the aeroplane was low enough to shoot down using a MANPAD. Such missiles are much smaller and may not be seen by civilian radar. This would explain the confusion, with initial reports being an engine fire only.
Who benefits? Iran had no reason to shoot down the jet, as it looks very bad for them both domestically and internationally, it's causing domestic upset with the government. The only reason they might have wanted to shoot it down would be to assassinate someone onboard - and there are much cleaner ways of assassinating people.
However, a Western organisation could benefit from shooting it down, as it would allow them to paint the Iranians as evil. Just as the Ukranians managed to paint the Donbass and Russia evil by shooting down MH17 and blaming it on them... (I'll just say that without backing it up, can do if needed).
This raises the question of whether the aeroplane was shot down by insurgents within Iran, with a MANPAD, as a false flag. CIA, Mossad, or just random terrorists - any of those could have motive. That would explain why the Iranians initially denied the plane was shot down - they may have known nothing about it, and only figured this out later themselves.
But why would they then claim responsibility?
The main suggestion that has been made is that to admit that foreign agents were able to penetrate to the outskirts of Tehran and shoot down a plane would be an enormous embarrassment for the IRGC.
It may be seen as less embarrassing to say they made a mistake, than to say that foreign forces are wandering around the country armed with missiles.
Even if guilty, why would they claim responsibility and apologise? The USA took many years to admit responsibility for the USS Vincennes shootdown, has never apologised, and gave the commanding officer of the ship a medal for his service. The Iranians have apologised and put a man in jail for it. So they could be simply trying to grab the moral high ground by comparison - but people's memories are short, most won't make that comparison at all. It would be an ineffective propaganda move.
But it's all speculation. Nobody really knows anything other than that the official story doesn't make sense, so reality must be different.
Key articles of interest:
https://www.fort-russ.com/2020/01/texas-iranian-flight-crash-facts-not-adding-up/
https://www.fort-russ.com/2020/01/time-to-untangle-a-very-deep-deception-downing-of-flight-752/
https://www.fort-russ.com/2020/01/texas-ps-752-and-mh-17-update-and-new-info/
https://www.fort-russ.com/2020/01/on-taking-responsibility-for-downing-a-passenger-jet/