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War with Armenia

FollowingHim

FollowingHim

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Armenia is one of the very few Christian countries in the world, but is sandwiched between Muslim Turkey, Azerbaijan and Iran (Christian Georgia to the north). Many wars have happened in that area over the centuries. The Armenian Genocide by Turkey in WW1 is notable. The last major war was between Azerbaijan and Armenia in the late 80's/early 90's.

Georgia, to the north, had a war with Russia in 2008, and immediately to the south is the NE corner of Syria and Iraq that has been at war in various ways for years. The whole region is generally unstable.

But the important thing to note is that one of the few Christian countries in the world has been attacked by a Muslim country (Azerbaijan), with the very obvious backing of Turkey. Turkey has apparently positioned military forces in Azerbaijan (strategically left there after military exercises), and Turkish state media war correspondents were on the ground giving live coverage from the moment Azerbaijan attacked, showing a fair degree of collaboration and planning.

The other point to note is that Armenia has no clear large ally. Both Russia and the USA, for different reasons, would be obvious allies. But Russia has been trying to be even-handed and not pick sides over the years (selling arms to both Armenia and Azerbaijan), and the USA has no obvious reason to get into yet another conflict with their supposed ally Turkey over a country that most Americans probably don't even know exists. While Azerbaijan is backed by Turkey, with one of the largest militaries in the world.

Pray for our Christian brothers in Armenia, and for their enemies in Azerbaijan. Pray for peace. Regardless of who is "right" in the secular sense in the conflict, a lot of people could die very soon.

The best coverage of this I have found is from Fort Russ News, a Serbian news outlet. Get up to speed with these two articles:
BREAKING: ARMENIA & AZERBAIJAN BRINK OF WAR – Video And In-Depth Report
Russia Appears Indecisive As Turkey Exposed As Backing Azerbaijan War In Karabakh
To be clear, at this stage Azerbaijan has attacked an Armenian-ethnic enclave within Azerbaijan, that was established in the previous conflict in the 90's and is backed by Armenia. There's an active "hot war" between Azerbaijan and this enclave, and the probability of an active war with Armenia itself as a result. Armenia has announced martial law and a full mobilisation.

This, incidentally, is a silver coin from the official Armenian mint. Just to illustrate they're serious about their Christian heritage.
a2020-Noahs-Ark-Silver-Coin_rev.jpg.pagespeed.ic._8J1iHq39q.webp
 
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War is hell. It's usually encouraged by those who stand to profit from it.....not those who stand to lose.

Thank you for sharing. I will certainly pray for all impacted.
 
Another update, from Zerohedge, with very relevant and depressing background information:
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/armenian-azerbaijani-war-rages-south-caucasus
Pro-Armenian forces captured the region in the early 90s triggering an armed conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan. Further development of the hostilities and the expected offensive by pro-Azerbajian forces were stopped by a Russian intervention in May of 1994.
...
The 2018 political crisis in Armenia the led to a seizure of power in the country by de-facto pro-Western forces led by current Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan which did not strengthen Armenian positions over the territorial dispute. The double standard policy of the Armenian government, which was de-facto conducting anti-Russian actions but keeping public rhetoric pro-Russian, also played its own role. For years, Russia has been the only guarantor of Armenian statehood and the only force capable to rescue it in the event of a full-scale Azerbaijani-Turkish attack. Nonetheless, the Armenian leadership did pretty well in undermining its strategic partnership with its neighbor.

On the other hand, the political and economic situation in Azerbaijan was more stable. Baku also was able to secure good working relations with Russia. Together with the developing strategic partnership with Turkey, a natural historical ally of the country, and the strengthening of Turkish positions in the Greater Middle East, led to an expected attempt by Azerbaijan to restore control over the contested territories.

...
The Armenian Defense Ministry also said that it has data about Turkish involvement in the conflict, the usage of Turkish weapons and the presence of mercenaries linked to Turkey. Earlier, reports appeared that Turkey was deploying members of its Syrian proxy groups in Azerbaijan. Arayik Harutyunyan, the President of the Nagorno-Karabakh Republic, openly stated that the republic is at war with both Azerbaijan and Turkey.

The Washington establishment that helped Pashinyan to seize power is also not hurrying up to assist its ‘new friends’ in Armenia. They see the Nagorno-Karabakh region as a point of possible conflict between Russia and Turkey (which is useful to promote the US agenda in the Greater Middle East). The instability in South Caucasus, close to the borders of Russia and Iran, also contributes to the geopolitical interests of the United States. Therefore, the Pashinyan government should not expect any real help from the ‘democratic superpower’.

On the other hand, the direct involvement of Russia and thus the Collective Security Treaty Organization on the side of Armenia is unlikely until there is no direct attack on its territory. Moscow would intervene into the conflict both politically and militarily, but only as far as necessary to prevent a violation of Armenia’s borders. Russia would not contribute military efforts to restore Armenian control over Nagorno Karabakh should the region be captured by Azerbaijan.
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It seems reasonable to assume that Armenia was deliberately taken over by pro-Western forces only two years ago, right in the middle of similar pro-Western movements in other countries neighbouring Russia (Ukraine and Belarus for instance), deliberately to sow instability in the countries bordering Russia that are Russia's "buffer" between themselves and the NATO powers, and allow NATO to expand into those regions. Ukraine is a buffer between Russia and Germany, while Armenia and Georgia form a buffer between Russia and Turkey. Ukraine was taken over by a pro-Western administration - and war was the result. Armenia was taken over by a pro-Western administration - and war is now the result also.

In other words, the Armenian people may be being deliberately controlled and then sacrificed by sinister forces in the West simply as part of a strategy to weaken Russia. Just another chapter in the "great game" between nations where millions of regular people are slaughtered as pawns to advance the ambitions of a callous and bloodthirsty elite.

And if Armenia became subject to Turkey in some way (either officially or de-facto), that would extend NATO's control of the Caucasus. This means that as long as Turkey is a member of NATO, it is in NATO's strategic interest that Armenia be brought under subjection to a Muslim neighbour - the same neighbour that committed a genocide of their people a century ago! Seriously.

Which should obviously raise the old question of "are we the baddies?".
 
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Haven't we already had two world wars spring from that general region?

@FollowingHim I think you are right. This one bears watching. The really big wars start very small with players that have big brothers...

Sad.
 
RT now has a dedicated page for all news on this conflict:
rt.com/trends/nagorno-karabakh-dispute-news/
 
Another very informative background article from RT:
https://www.rt.com/russia/502016-nagorno-karabakh-conflict-explained/
The below quote explains why this land is in Azerbaijan anyway, and it comes back to an ancient political decision by the USSR.
Nagorno-Karabakh is among those places in the world where there is no historically correct evidence on whose claim is stronger. It was always too distant and difficult to control for any particular power to become dominant in ethnicity or religion. Armenians and Azeris have been living there in a patchwork of settlements, with old grudges held across generations.

The Russian Empire absorbed the region in the early 19th century after a war with Iran, but its goals were limited to preventing growing Armenian and Azeri nationalism from boiling over. After the Bolshevik revolution in the beginning of the 20th century, a full-fledged war started. The Soviets got involved with their own agenda to retake control of the region, and supported the territorial claim of the Azeris. The reason was largely down to the Bolshevik's desire for Turkey to eventually embrace communism. The Turks and Armenians were sworn enemies and Joseph Stalin feared upsetting Constantinople, the then capital, by giving Yerevan land desired by Baku. Thus, Nagorno-Karabakh ended up as an autonomous region of Soviet Azerbaijan.

The disintegration of the USSR then led to a repetition of the same scenario. In 1988, the authorities of Nagorno-Karabakh, which remained predominantly Armenian in ethnic makeup, despite Azerbaijani administration, petitioned Moscow to have their land transferred to Armenia.

After this was rejected, tensions mounted, escalating into a full-fledged war in 1991. Fought between independent Azerbaijan and the self-proclaimed Nagorno-Karabakh Republic, backed by Armenia, it lasted until May 1994 and claimed an estimated 15,000 to 25,000 lives on both sides, also forcing hundreds of thousands to flee.

The truce signed then – with Russia’s mediation – left Nagorno-Karabakh in control of most of the territory it held as a part of Azerbaijan, plus large swathes of land connecting it to Armenia and Iran, and a small portion on the Azeri side.
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A large portion of Azerbaijan's attacks are using drones. Azerbaijan's drones are supplied by Turkey and Israel. They have a very wide range of Israeli drones.
https://www.jpost.com/middle-east/i...ise-questions-on-use-in-the-battlefied-644161

Now, these Israel-made drones have been used to attack Armenia itself, one being shot down very near the capital Yerevan, a major escalation in the war as it is not only in the disputed region. Armenia has recalled their ambassador to Israel "for consultations".
https://www.rt.com/russia/502296-armenia-defenses-azerbaijan-drones/

The web gets more tangled.
 
A lot happens in a week, here's a quick roundup of events.

Fighting continues to continue intensely, as does an information war. Both sides are claiming the other side is suffering heavy losses but they are not. Both are accusing each other of bringing in foreign mercenaries while claiming they themselves are not. However, the facts behind the propaganda do become apparent from time to time.

Both claim to have had civilian populations attacked by rocket fire. However, Azerbaijan has been sharing very obviously fake images as proof of this, while Armenia is sharing clear evidence of it. Azerbaijan appears to be making it up, while Armenian civilians are coming under real attack.
https://fort-russ.com/2020/10/debun...-munitions-against-armenian-civilians-videos/
While both France and Syria have independently stated they have evidence that Turkey is shipping mercenaries from Syria to Azerbaijan.
https://fort-russ.com/2020/10/watch...-sent-to-artsakh-nagorno-karabakh-from-syria/
https://www.rt.com/russia/502251-macron-syrian-jihadists-nagorno-karabakh/

The UN has called for peace talks. The most obvious host for these is Russia, as both countries are former members of the USSR. This is complicated by the fact that Russia has a mutual defence pact with Armenia, so it helps to step back for a moment and consider the potential allies of each side.

Armenia is in a formal defence pact (the CSTO) with Russia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan. Interestingly, France has a population of around 600,000 Armenians, and is also vocal in support of Armenia and has reporters on the ground. It's unclear whether they'd offer military support. But in a full-blown war with Turkey, maybe France, Greece, Syria and Egypt would be allies of convenience by default, whether or not they actually like Armenia, simply because they're all moving towards war with Turkey in other theatres already. Only Russia has actually confirmed they will give military support if required.

Azerbaijan's major allies & potential allies: Turkey (already vocally supporting them), possibly NATO by extension, Iran (for completely different reasons), possibly other Muslim nations.
It is very important to realise that with Armenia defeated, or even just driven out of the disputed territory, NATO would have a land route to the Caspian Sea via Turkey -> Armenia -> Azerbaijan. This would cut off the key land access route between Russia and Iran, and give NATO serious strategic advantage against both Russia and Iran. There is a very strong reason for NATO to step aside and let Armenia fall to Turkey.

Regardless of the detail, it's clear this is a complicated enough mess and with enough tie-ins to other theatres of conflict that it could easily trigger something much larger, just as a small dispute in Serbia became World War One.

On Monday, Azerbaijan offered to attend peace talks hosted by Russia - on condition that Russia remained neutral in the conflict. That condition would remove Armenia's largest ally.
https://www.rt.com/russia/502455-azerbaijan-moscow-karabakh-mediator/
Russia has confirmed that they will stand by Armenia and honour their defence pact if required.
https://www.rt.com/russia/502822-nagorno-karabakh-putin-supporting-armenia/
But despite this disagreement, both sides have now agreed to attend mediation talks in Moscow.
https://www.rt.com/russia/503005-moscow-nagorno-karabakh-talks/

Pray that mediation actually achieves peace.
 
MeganC said:
This is really just another part of the world war where Islam vs. The World.
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It looks like Mystery Babylon the Great vs. the masses of people that could live in harmony in the geographical world....but sadly, not the one politically divided up.

All wars are political, and some are playing both sides.
 
MeganC said:
This is really just another part of the world war where Islam vs. The World.
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I don't think it's that simple. To illustrate, if Iran were to get involved in this war, right on their border, odds are they'd go in on the side of Armenia due to the wider geopolitical circumstances (both being allied with Russia in different ways). If this blew up into a wider fight, Syria and Egypt would also end up on the side of Armenia simply by default as they'd also end up fighting against Turkey (the enemy of my enemy is my friend). So it's not simply Islam vs the world, it's a lot more nuanced than that.
 
FollowingHim said:
I don't think it's that simple. To illustrate, if Iran were to get involved in this war, right on their border, odds are they'd go in on the side of Armenia due to the wider geopolitical circumstances (both being allied with Russia in different ways). If this blew up into a wider fight, Syria and Egypt would also end up on the side of Armenia simply by default as they'd also end up fighting against Turkey (the enemy of my enemy is my friend). So it's not simply Islam vs the world, it's a lot more nuanced than that.
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Why is Russia treating Turkey with kid gloves here? This is their ally under attack.
 
rockfox said:
Why is Russia treating Turkey with kid gloves here? This is their ally under attack.
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They have to let Turkey start the war so Turkey can't invoke Article five of the NATO treaty.
 
MeganC said:
They have to let Turkey start the war so Turkey can't invoke Article five of the NATO treaty.
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That may be it. I also wonder if Turkey holds a trump card with them over controlling the straights.

But Europe needs to expel Turkey. Any country that threatens to open the floodgates of immigration if they don't do it's bidding is no ally.
 
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