Gender ratios and age at marriage

[FollowingHim]

It is commonly argued that because there are roughly the same number of men as women in the world, then monogamy is the natural state of life. Polygamy will result in some men getting all the women and other men being left celibate.

Most of us are well aware that men tend to kill themselves off more rapidly than women do through hard work, war, and risky recreational activities, and this generally results in a slightly higher number of women than men of marriageable age. This slight surplus means that polygamy is necessary in order for all women to marry.

However, there is a much bigger issue at play also. Historically, older men tended to marry younger women, because men would wait until they had a stable income to support a wife before marriage, while women would marry as soon as they were ready in the eyes of the culture. In polygamous societies, the average age gap would be even higher, as even if a man married his first wife at the same age as himself, he may be several years older before he is in a position to marry a second, but may marry her from the same "pool" of marriageable women.

In a stable population, such as most Western countries, that doesn't change anything. But in a growing population, this makes an enormous difference to the ratio of men to women.

We can explore this through a very simple "model" of marriage. Let us assume that every person in a country marries at the same age. For example, every man marries at 25, and every woman also marries at 25. Everybody under the age of 25 is single, and everybody over 25 is already married. If a man is polygamous, he marries both women simultaneously at 25. Obviously this is not realistic, but it's very easy to do maths on, and is easy to understand. In this model, the number of 25-year-old women per 25-year-old man is the average number of wives that a man can have in that society.

Alternatively, we can assume that every man marries at 30, and every woman at 25. With a 5-year average age gap, the number of 25-year-old-women per 30-year-old-man is the average number of wives a man can have.

Although it is simplistic, the results will indicate the number of women per men with that average age gap, even in a realistic situation with people marrying at a range of ages.

As a snapshot view, here are the number of women per men for the USA and Uganda, in 2009, assuming that every man marries at 30, but with an average age gap of 0 to 15 years between men and women. In other words, it is assumed that every woman marries a 30-year-old man, but marries at anywhere from 30 years (age gap 0) to 15 years old (age gap 15). The USA had a stable population in 2009 with similar numbers of people in each age bracket up to around 50, while Uganda had a growing population with more children than adults.

Number of women per man with 0-15 year age gaps:
Gap- - - - - - US - - - - - - UG
0 - - - 0.9816544 - - - 1.021994
1 - - - 1.0049443 - - - 1.071828
2 - - - 1.0256994 - - - 1.126634
3 - - - 1.0227835 - - - 1.187786
4 - - - 1.0016499 - - - 1.251112
5 - - - 0.9987847 - - - 1.316923
6 - - - 1.0053122 - - - 1.389926
7 - - - 0.9987586 - - - 1.469224
8 - - - 0.9950808 - - - 1.548478
9 - - - 1.0170579 - - - 1.629450
10 - - - 1.0340511 - - - 1.715154
11 - - - 1.0873899 - - - 1.795374
12 - - - 1.0663664 - - - 1.870610
13 - - - 1.0370312 - - - 1.946620
14 - - - 1.0243672 - - - 2.032000
15 - - - 1.0017633 - - - 2.119559

For the USA, in 2009, there were approximately equal numbers of 30-year-old men and women (interestingly, there were actually slightly fewer women than men, so not following the general men-die-faster principle). And it wouldn't have made any difference if men on average married younger women, there would have been approximately 1 woman per man regardless of age gap.

In Uganda, there were approximately equal numbers of 30-year-old men and women. However due to the growing population, with only a 4-year average age gap, there were 25% more women than men. In other words, 1 in 4 men could have two wives. With a 14-year average age gap, there were twice as many women as men - every man could be a polygamist.

Throughout human history, most populations would be growing even more rapidly than Uganda's today. The USA's stable population is highly artificial and driven by modern behaviour particularly hormonal contraceptives and abortion, and does not in any way reflect God's plan for people to "be fruitful and multiply". Even Uganda, by 2009, had lower birth rates than historically, due to the encroachment of modern Western behaviour and values. Most Biblical societies, and even historical Western societies, would have had even higher birth rates and therefore age would have an even stronger influence on the potential (and need) for polygamy.

To see the overall age structure of any country's population, check out https://www.populationpyramid.net.

That site gives an overview of the population structure, but does not directly calculate the ratio of women to men at different pairs of ages. These statistics are not readily available, but I've written a script to generate them. I intend one day to make an interactive webpage to let people explore these stats, but I'm taking too long to actually do that because I'm busy with other things. So I thought that rather than keep sitting on it I had better share some basic stats here, and the code I used to generate them, to let others take it further if you like.

Here is code for the statistical program "R", that will pull data from the US Census Bureau for any country in any year they have records for (try after around 1980-1990 if a query fails, some countries only have recent data), and calculate the number of females per male for any pair of male/female ages. You'll have to sign up for a US Census Bureau key to use it, but that's free (see code for instructions).

# Data comes from the US Census Bureau through the idbr package
# To obtain data:
# 1) install.packages('idbr')
# 2) Register for an api key at https://api.census.gov/data/key_signup.html
# See http://personal.tcu.edu/kylewalker/articles/walker-2016-spatial-demography.html
# To look up countries using FIPS country codes, find codes here:
# https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_FIPS_country_codes

library(idbr)
idb_api_key('insert_key_here')

# Functions to calculate number of females per male for any country, year, and age choices
# Require FIPS country code

# ONE SEX RATIO
# One country, one year, one pair of male & female ages.

# Function:
sexratio <- function(ctry,yr,agem,agef) {
  # Obtain data
  male <- idb1(ctry, yr, sex = 'male', variables = c("AGE", "NAME", "POP"))
  female <- idb1(ctry, yr, sex = 'female', variables = c("AGE", "NAME", "POP"))
  # Extract desired years
  nom <- as.numeric(subset(male,AGE==agem,select=POP))
  nof <- as.numeric(subset(female,AGE==agef,select=POP))
  # Calculate number of females per male and return
  nof / nom
}

# Example usage
sexratio('NZ',2009,26,16)

# BULK SEX RATIOS
# Multiple countries, one year, one male age, multiple female ages (as per above table of results)

# Functions:
sexratio_getdata <- function(ctry,yr){
  # Obtain data
  male <- idb1(ctry, yr, sex = 'male', variables = c("AGE", "NAME", "POP"))
  female <- idb1(ctry, yr, sex = 'female', variables = c("AGE", "NAME", "POP"))
  list(male,female)
}
sexratio_process <- function(male,female,agem,agef){
  # Extract desired years
  nom <- as.numeric(subset(male,AGE==agem,select=POP))
  nof <- as.numeric(subset(female,AGE==agef,select=POP))
  # Calculate number of females per male and return
  nof / nom
}

# Example usage:
maleage <- 30
femaleage <- c(30:15)
countries <- c("US","UG")
year <- 2009

numfemales <- matrix(data=NA,nrow=length(femaleage),ncol=length(countries),dimnames=list(maleage-femaleage,countries))
for(j in 1:length(countries)){
  data <- sexratio_getdata(countries[j],year)
  for(i in 1:length(femaleage)){
   numfemales[i,j] <- sexratio_process(data[[1]],data[[2]],maleage,femaleage[i])
  }
}

numfemales

 

[frederick]

Thanks @FollowingHim.

 

[rejoicinghandmaid]

It is commonly argued that because there are roughly the same number of men as women in the world, then monogamy is the natural state of life. Polygamy will result in some men getting all the women and other men being left celibate.

Most of us are well aware that men tend to kill themselves off more rapidly than women do through hard work, war, and risky recreational activities, and this generally results in a slightly higher number of women than men of marriageable age. This slight surplus means that polygamy is necessary in order for all women to marry.

However, there is a much bigger issue at play also. Historically, older men tended to marry younger women, because men would wait until they had a stable income to support a wife before marriage, while women would marry as soon as they were ready in the eyes of the culture. In polygamous societies, the average age gap would be even higher, as even if a man married his first wife at the same age as himself, he may be several years older before he is in a position to marry a second, but may marry her from the same "pool" of marriageable women.

In a stable population, such as most Western countries, that doesn't change anything. But in a growing population, this makes an enormous difference to the ratio of men to women.

We can explore this through a very simple "model" of marriage. Let us assume that every person in a country marries at the same age. For example, every man marries at 25, and every woman also marries at 25. Everybody under the age of 25 is single, and everybody over 25 is already married. If a man is polygamous, he marries both women simultaneously at 25. Obviously this is not realistic, but it's very easy to do maths on, and is easy to understand. In this model, the number of 25-year-old women per 25-year-old man is the average number of wives that a man can have in that society.

Alternatively, we can assume that every man marries at 30, and every woman at 25. With a 5-year average age gap, the number of 25-year-old-women per 30-year-old-man is the average number of wives a man can have.

Although it is simplistic, the results will indicate the number of women per men with that average age gap, even in a realistic situation with people marrying at a range of ages.

As a snapshot view, here are the number of women per men for the USA and Uganda, in 2009, assuming that every man marries at 30, but with an average age gap of 0 to 15 years between men and women. In other words, it is assumed that every woman marries a 30-year-old man, but marries at anywhere from 30 years (age gap 0) to 15 years old (age gap 15). The USA had a stable population in 2009 with similar numbers of people in each age bracket up to around 50, while Uganda had a growing population with more children than adults.

Number of women per man with 0-15 year age gaps:
Gap- - - - - - US - - - - - - UG
0 - - - 0.9816544 - - - 1.021994
1 - - - 1.0049443 - - - 1.071828
2 - - - 1.0256994 - - - 1.126634
3 - - - 1.0227835 - - - 1.187786
4 - - - 1.0016499 - - - 1.251112
5 - - - 0.9987847 - - - 1.316923
6 - - - 1.0053122 - - - 1.389926
7 - - - 0.9987586 - - - 1.469224
8 - - - 0.9950808 - - - 1.548478
9 - - - 1.0170579 - - - 1.629450
10 - - - 1.0340511 - - - 1.715154
11 - - - 1.0873899 - - - 1.795374
12 - - - 1.0663664 - - - 1.870610
13 - - - 1.0370312 - - - 1.946620
14 - - - 1.0243672 - - - 2.032000
15 - - - 1.0017633 - - - 2.119559

For the USA, in 2009, there were approximately equal numbers of 30-year-old men and women (interestingly, there were actually slightly fewer women than men, so not following supporting the general men-die-faster principle). And it wouldn't have made any difference if men on average married younger women, there would have been approximately 1 woman per man regardless of age gap.

In Uganda, there were approximately equal numbers of 30-year-old men and women. However due to the growing population, with only a 4-year average age gap, there were 25% more women than men. In other words, 1 in 4 men could have two wives. With a 14-year average age gap, there were twice as many women as men - every man could be a polygamist.

Throughout human history, most populations would be growing even more rapidly than Uganda's today. The USA's stable population is highly artificial and driven by modern behaviour particularly hormonal contraceptives and abortion, and does not in any way reflect God's plan for people to "be fruitful and multiply". Even Uganda, by 2009, had lower birth rates than historically, due to the encroachment of modern Western behaviour and values. Most Biblical societies, and even historical Western societies, would have had even higher birth rates and therefore age would have an even stronger influence on the potential (and need) for polygamy.

To see the overall age structure of any country's population, check out https://www.populationpyramid.net.

That site gives an overview of the population structure, but does not directly calculate the ratio of women to men at different pairs of ages. These statistics are not readily available, but I've written a script to generate them. I intend one day to make an interactive webpage to let people explore these stats, but I'm taking too long to actually do that because I'm busy with other things. So I thought that rather than keep sitting on it I had better share some basic stats here, and the code I used to generate them, to let others take it further if you like.

Here is code for the statistical program "R", that will pull data from the US Census Bureau for any country in any year they have records for (try after around 1980-1990 if a query fails, some countries only have recent data), and calculate the number of females per male for any pair of male/female ages. You'll have to sign up for a US Census Bureau key to use it, but that's free (see code for instructions).

# Data comes from the US Census Bureau through the idbr package
# To obtain data:
# 1) install.packages('idbr')
# 2) Register for an api key at https://api.census.gov/data/key_signup.html
# See http://personal.tcu.edu/kylewalker/articles/walker-2016-spatial-demography.html
# To look up countries using FIPS country codes, find codes here:
# https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_FIPS_country_codes

library(idbr)
idb_api_key('insert_key_here')

# Functions to calculate number of females per male for any country, year, and age choices
# Require FIPS country code

# ONE SEX RATIO
# One country, one year, one pair of male & female ages.

# Function:
sexratio <- function(ctry,yr,agem,agef) {
  # Obtain data
  male <- idb1(ctry, yr, sex = 'male', variables = c("AGE", "NAME", "POP"))
  female <- idb1(ctry, yr, sex = 'female', variables = c("AGE", "NAME", "POP"))
  # Extract desired years
  nom <- as.numeric(subset(male,AGE==agem,select=POP))
  nof <- as.numeric(subset(female,AGE==agef,select=POP))
  # Calculate number of females per male and return
  nof / nom
}

# Example usage
sexratio('NZ',2009,26,16)

# BULK SEX RATIOS
# Multiple countries, one year, one male age, multiple female ages (as per above table of results)

# Functions:
sexratio_getdata <- function(ctry,yr){
  # Obtain data
  male <- idb1(ctry, yr, sex = 'male', variables = c("AGE", "NAME", "POP"))
  female <- idb1(ctry, yr, sex = 'female', variables = c("AGE", "NAME", "POP"))
  list(male,female)
}
sexratio_process <- function(male,female,agem,agef){
  # Extract desired years
  nom <- as.numeric(subset(male,AGE==agem,select=POP))
  nof <- as.numeric(subset(female,AGE==agef,select=POP))
  # Calculate number of females per male and return
  nof / nom
}

# Example usage:
maleage <- 30
femaleage <- c(30:15)
countries <- c("US","UG")
year <- 2009

numfemales <- matrix(data=NA,nrow=length(femaleage),ncol=length(countries),dimnames=list(maleage-femaleage,countries))
for(j in 1:length(countries)){
  data <- sexratio_getdata(countries[j],year)
  for(i in 1:length(femaleage)){
   numfemales[i,j] <- sexratio_process(data[[1]],data[[2]],maleage,femaleage[i])
  }
}

numfemales

Wow--this computer stuff is way over my head, but interesting that you've crunched the numbers @FollowingHim. And your project--maybe someone from BF will pick up the ball and run with it.

 

[PeteR]

Thank you, @FollowingHim . Good info. Love the website idea...

Even in the stable US population, I have heard as many as 1 in 18 males are incarcerated, then homosexuality, celibacy and other factors play in still making the artificially even numbers decidedly out of balance.

 

[FollowingHim]

Agreed. This is a simple overall statistical comparison that does not take account of all factors. But it's interesting, and could readily be extended to take account of more factors provided there's suitable data to work from.

 

[steve]

It is commonly argued that because there are roughly the same number of men as women in the world, then monogamy is the natural state of life.

And then there are all of the beta males, which aren’t men.

 

[cnystrom]

+1 to any thread that includes computer source code!

 

[cnystrom]

However, I think the far bigger problem sociologically speaking than that someone might get left out, is that the younger generation does not really value marriage anyway. Thus the average ago of marriage is climbing and less and less people are getting married.

So the result is that there are plenty enough candidates for everyone, but no one is playing the game anymore.

Marriage and having children is not percieved by modern men as a good deal (with good reason), and modern women with women's liberation see no need to be tied down particularly early in life. They are more concerned about career, earning money, and having the good life.

Ask a young lady what she wants to do when she grows up. You rarely if ever get one that wants to be a wife and mother. Instead of something that the young are intentional about marriage is viewed more of as a happy accident and a side thing.

To be fair, a young person that IS intentional about it might come across in our culture as desperate or pushy.

I think this could be viewed two ways. In one way it is negative reflection on our culture. In the other way, it means that there is are a lot of potential candidates out there if you can educate them.

An exception is divorcees. Having been burned once (or more), they seem more intentional and careful. They know what is at stake. It is no longer a game. It is serious business.

Economically speaking, polygamy increases the value of the women since there are more customers so to speak for them. Since the economic value for the women goes up, then it compels the men to step up their own value proposition whether married or single.

Sexually polygamy increases the value of the married man. Monogamy cultures values the single man as a sex object and the married man is a chump who is off the market and worthy of less respect. In polygamy the married man is still in the market as much as the single and thus can still be viewed as a sex object.

No facts or figures. Just my impression. Might be totally wrong.

 

[FollowingHim2]

Ask a young lady what she wants to do when she grows up. You rarely if ever get one that wants to be a wife and mother. Instead of something that the young are intentional about marriage is viewed more of as a happy accident and a side thing.

Ask me when I was 5 or so and I would have told you that all I wanted was to be a wife and mother. Ask me when I was 10 and I would've said a vet, because that was more appropriate to say and didn't get people laughing at me and saying "yes, but what do you actually want to do".
There are other women like me, but society tells them just being a wife and mother isn't enough.

 

[FollowingHim]

At an individual level you're correct @cnystrom , there are enough women for those few people interested in being polygamous.
But if this were only achieved through other men missing out (even by their own choice), then polygamy is only a solution for a not-ideal situation.

These stats address a wider population-level question - is it a viable part of God's ideal plan, can it be practiced with nobody missing out in a society where all wish to marry, and is it necessary in such a society?

This is a separate question, a more theoretical one, with little relevance to the individual, but of value for apologists.

 

[FollowingHim]

Your encouragement to go and change people's minds reminds me of the last message I gave to my university Christian club. It was at an agricultural university, somewhat male dominated. I encouraged everyone to focus on evangelising the new students, to find wives, because there weren't enough Christian ladies in the group to go around. I was joking, but serious too. Sex as a motivation for evangelism...

 

[rockfox]

Throughout human history, most populations would be growing even more rapidly than Uganda's today. The USA's stable population is highly artificial and driven by modern behaviour particularly hormonal contraceptives and abortion, and does not in any way reflect God's plan for people to "be fruitful and multiply". Even Uganda, by 2009, had lower birth rates than historically, due to the encroachment of modern Western behaviour and values. Most Biblical societies, and even historical Western societies, would have had even higher birth rates and therefore age would have an even stronger influence on the potential (and need) for polygamy.

It took a lot of propaganda and social pressure to get the US rate down; propaganda which since the 2000's began to be leveraged in Africa. For the record, Uganda '09 birth rate was about the same as the Amish; it's not an unrealistic goal.

5 - - - 0.9987847 - - - 1.316923

5 yearsis a reasonable gap. And results in 1 in 3 men having 2 wives; far more than likely want such today. But this blessing is ONLY available if we follow the command of God and BE FRUITFUL AND MULTIPLY.

the younger generation does not really value marriage anyway. Thus the average ago of marriage is climbing and less and less people are getting married.

It would help matters if parents wouldn't ignore teaching their daughters to prep for marriage and they and churches stop pressuring them to delay marriage and focus on the career instead; have some 'fun' before settling down. And end the shaming about relationships with older men and having big families.

That and church communities need to come down hard on divorce and stop running cover for women who want to jettison their husbands. A coin flip isn't a good bet; kids need to see that marriage can work and work well.

 

[Daniel DeLuca]

It took a lot of propaganda and social pressure to get the US rate down; propaganda which since the 2000's began to be leveraged in Africa. For the record, Uganda '09 birth rate was about the same as the Amish; it's not an unrealistic goal.



5 yearsis a reasonable gap. And results in 1 in 3 men having 2 wives; far more than likely want such today. But this blessing is ONLY available if we follow the command of God and BE FRUITFUL AND MULTIPLY.



It would help matters if parents wouldn't ignore teaching their daughters to prep for marriage and they and churches stop pressuring them to delay marriage and focus on the career instead; have some 'fun' before settling down. And end the shaming about relationships with older men and having big families.

That and church communities need to come down hard on divorce and stop running cover for women who want to jettison their husbands. A coin flip isn't a good bet; kids need to see that marriage can work and work well.

I don't know that Scripture is so forceful upon the woman not to leave her husband, as it is on the man to not put away his wife. Where Scripture is forceful, and where our churches have been embarrassingly silent, is on a woman remarrying someone other than her first husband. Notice that there is practically no condemnation at all for a divorced man marrying another woman, so long as he did not initiate the divorce, and even then, the NASB footnotes indicate that some manuscripts state that what Jesus actually said in Matt 19:9, is merely a reiteration of what He said in Matt 5:32. The Greek does not say "marry another woman", which some translations insert that word "woman" into the text, but rather, it says "marry another", and that word translated "marry" could be translated as "to lead into marriage". That would make more sense when we consider the Biblical definition of adultery. In summary, the requirements for men and women are clearly different. Men are not allowed to initiate a divorce, and women are not allowed to go off and become another man's wife.

 

[Verifyveritas76]

Men are not allowed to initiate a divorce, and women are not allowed to go off and become another man's wife.

Well said. From my perspective I’d add that women are not allowed to go off and become another mans wife if they are adulterous. The 1 Cor 7 passage specifically states that the believing woman is not bound to her unbelieving husband that leaves her. Why? Abandonment is covenant breaking/adultery by either party.

 

[Pacman]

Ask me when I was 5 or so and I would have told you that all I wanted was to be a wife and mother. Ask me when I was 10 and I would've said a vet, because that was more appropriate to say and didn't get people laughing at me and saying "yes, but what do you actually want to do".
There are other women like me, but society tells them just being a wife and mother isn't enough.

My 13 year old daughter wants to be a wife and mother of several children and she wants to homeschool them. That's the answer she gave her grandma when asked about a month ago. Needless to say I am very proud of her.

 

[Asforme&myhouse]

Well said. From my perspective I’d add that women are not allowed to go off and become another mans wife if they are adulterous. The 1 Cor 7 passage specifically states that the believing woman is not bound to her unbelieving husband that leaves her. Why? Abandonment is covenant breaking/adultery by either party.

I think that’s true but I think there is more at play here with the believer/unbeliever marriage in those verses. Scripture says “what communion hath light with darkness?” And “And you hath he quickened, who were dead in trespasses and sins;”.

If the unbeliever is willing to stay then they are the mission field of the believing spouse, but if the unbeliever leaves, in reality they were already “dead in trespasses and sins” and it’s more like the believing wife is a widow.

 

[Verifyveritas76]

If the unbeliever is willing to stay then they are the mission field of the believing spouse, but if the unbeliever leaves, in reality they were already “dead in trespasses and sins” and it’s more like the believing wife is a widow.

I hear what youre saying, however, I think that this is very close to the same argument someone close to us used to justify her unjust divorce. Her approach was to say that the marriage was dead and she only promised to death do us part. Obviously, that didnt go over very well with us as she definitely vowed til physical death of one of the spouses, not the I’m unhappy with the status of our marriage “death”. Her divorce was textbook for everything that she could do wrong to end the marriage and covenant breaking, she did. Her husband had done nothing Scripturally to justify the divorce, (adultery, fornication, food, clothing and marital duties) and she had done everything to justify him divorcing her. She was just trying to preemptively divorce for judicial advantage.

Part of the issue here is that unlike physical death, spiritual death is a curable issue.

 

[rejoicinghandmaid]

My 13 year old daughter wants to be a wife and mother of several children and she wants to homeschool them. That's the answer she gave her grandma when asked about a month ago. Needless to say I am very proud of her.

Somebody's doing something right at your house! and praise the Lord GOD that your daughter's heart is turned toward Him and home!

 

[Asforme&myhouse]

I hear what youre saying, however, I think that this is very close to the same argument someone close to us used to justify her unjust divorce. Her approach was to say that the marriage was dead and she only promised to death do us part. Obviously, that didnt go over very well with us as she definitely vowed til physical death of one of the spouses, not the I’m unhappy with the status of our marriage “death”. Her divorce was textbook for everything that she could do wrong to end the marriage and covenant breaking, she did. Her husband had done nothing Scripturally to justify the divorce, (adultery, fornication, food, clothing and marital duties) and she had done everything to justify him divorcing her. She was just trying to preemptively divorce for judicial advantage.

Part of the issue here is that unlike physical death, spiritual death is a curable issue.

I hear what you’re saying. However, just because someone uses or twists something in scripture Doesn’t mean we should try to change or narrow the meaning to keep them from using it. People use the grace of God as license to sin but that doesn’t mean we add works for gaining salvation to prevent them from doing that. Sounds like it really wouldn’t have mattered what scripture you gave her, she was going to sin anyway.

 

[Asforme&myhouse]

Bahahaha sorry @Verifyveritas76 i didn’t mean to start my response exactly the same way you did. It was completely unintentional I promise.