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Preparing for a post-virus world

steve said:
All in all, Russia and SA sure picked the worst time to pull their little “flood the market” war. Nobody won.
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No, I think they might have picked the time strategically. They were going to have terrible incomes anyway, as were everybody else, which means that even if the price goes to 0 their actual loss beyond what would have happened without the price war may be less than you'd think. If they're trying to destroy other producers, kicking them while they're down would be the most effective strategy, provided they've personally got the cash reserves to come through it and be in a smaller number of producers who survive. They might have chosen the best time, and what we're seeing in the oil prices might be just what they were wanting.
 
FollowingHim said:
No, I think they might have picked the time strategically. They were going to have terrible incomes anyway, as were everybody else, which means that even if the price goes to 0 their actual loss beyond what would have happened without the price war may be less than you'd think. If they're trying to destroy other producers, kicking them while they're down would be the most effective strategy, provided they've personally got the cash reserves to come through it and be in a smaller number of producers who survive. They might have chosen the best time, and what we're seeing in the oil prices might be just what they were wanting.
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That makes total sense.
 
IIRC Russia's oil production costs are thought to go as low as single digits while US Shale is over 40 a barrel.
 
With the number of meat processing plants shutting down there WILL be food shortages. But you might not hear about it because any mention of shortages will be censored...

 
rockfox said:
With the number of meat processing plants shutting down there WILL be food shortages. But you might not hear about it because any mention of shortages will be censored...

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BIAS WARNING: I don’t believe that swine is food.
( so nobody needs to point that out)

This is the second report where I have heard it mentioned offhandedly that pork processing is shut because of the actual illness of workers, but beef processing is slowed down because the workers fear getting sick.
Are people who handle swine all day more susceptible?

Also, both sources specifically mention swine being put down but no mention of cattle being put down. Even though this guy keeps mentioning ranchers, I don’t know if he thinks ranchers raise pigs?
The other report said that the cattlemen were discussing slowing down the finishing process because of the inability to get them slaughtered.

Euthanizing pigs because there is a temporary glitch in processing seems an excessively drastic move. I would think that riding out the crisis with changing your feeding pattern would be less catastrophic, but the science of pork production may dictate that they must be processed at a specific age?

The other report also stated that chickens are being put down. But it didn’t go into whether they are layers or meat birds.

This is not an argument about pork, merely an observation and a marker. Please don’t react as if it’s an argument.

btw: I find that particular channel excessively alarmist.


Another side note: A local 97 year old gentlemen was in the hospital with that pesky virus but is out now and doing fine. Did the fact that he is a Jew and has never eaten pork have any bearing on his ability to withstand and recover? We may never know.
 
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Agree with @steve , but also wonder if the plant putting down the hogs gets to write off or collect insurance on the lost ag revenue while artificially driving up the price of pork?. Win-win?
 
steve said:
BIAS WARNING: I don’t believe that swine is food.
( so nobody needs to point that out)

This is the second report where I have heard it mentioned offhandedly that pork processing is shut because of the actual illness of workers, but beef processing is slowed down because the workers fear getting sick.
Are people who handle swine all day more susceptible?

Also, both sources specifically mention swine being put down but no mention of cattle being put down. Even though this guy keeps mentioning ranchers, I don’t know if he thinks ranchers raise pigs?
The other report said that the cattlemen were discussing slowing down the finishing process because of the inability to get them slaughtered.

Euthanizing pigs because there is a temporary glitch in processing seems an excessively drastic move. I would think that riding out the crisis with changing your feeding pattern would be less catastrophic, but the science of pork production may dictate that they must be processed at a specific age?

The other report also stated that chickens are being put down. But it didn’t go into whether they are layers or meat birds.

This is not an argument about pork, merely an observation and a marker. Please don’t react as if it’s an argument.

btw: I find that particular channel excessively alarmist.


Another side note: A local 97 year old gentlemen was in the hospital with that pesky virus but is out now and doing fine. Did the fact that he is a Jew and has never eaten pork have any bearing on his ability to withstand and recover? We may never know.
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snipe much
 
steve said:
Euthanizing pigs because there is a temporary glitch in processing seems an excessively drastic move. I would think that riding out the crisis with changing your feeding pattern would be less catastrophic, but the science of pork production may dictate that they must be processed at a specific age?
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Feed is very expensive. The longer you feed them, the lower the profit margin if you can eventually sell them. By the time you can sell them, if others have also tried feeding theirs through the downturn, there will be such a glut of animals on the market that the price will crash.

Whenever the plant reopens, people aren't going to eat the last month's worth of food as well as this month, past pork consumption is simply gone. So you've got all the animals that were raised to be eaten this month, plus the animals that were saved over from previous months, but only the demand to eat the animals that were planned to be eaten this month. There is not additional consumption to consume those held-over animals.

So you'll have much higher feed costs, and end up with a much lower sale price. If you can sell them at all. Many farmers may do the maths and find it's safest to cut their losses early by slaughtering before they incur further costs, and just focus on raising the younger animals they already have on-hand for sale once the plants reopen.
 
I was in the supermarket here the other day, getting supplies. Most things were there, but particular shelves were much barer than normal and many cheaper brands were unavailable. Not only flour, but also pasta, bread, biscuits (cookies), frozen vegetables, and various other items were limited to 2 or 4 items per customer. This might be ok for townies who shop every second day, but I was driving in from the country for and trying to buy 2 weeks worth of food for a family of 9...

The whole atmosphere was different to normal. People were polite, but it felt like being transported suddenly to a communist state. Queue at the door and only go in when the security guard says you can (after someone else comes out, as there are a limited number of people allowed inside at one time). Checkout staff enforcing quota limits. Basically, there is a class of people in society who are generally powerless, but in a situation like this get raised to little positions of power - like deciding who can enter a door when. They take these jobs very seriously, and think their jobs are very important. Suddenly they have power over others. These are the little people who are given power over all the little matters in any socialist society, and they embrace it with enthusiasm. It felt like their time had come - it felt like the communists had seized power over the food production system. Now, that is NOT the reality, at least yet. But it felt that way, and it was a very interesting societal change, particularly since it has happened so suddenly and without an actual political change.

The most bizzare conversation I had was with a checkout operator.
"I've got a problem with the bread quota. I have seven children, live in the country and shop once every week or two. We would usually buy 20-30 loaves at a time. I know that is not possible, but is there any way I could buy a few more than four?"
"Do you have any evidence that you have seven children?"
"Um, no, I don't see how I could prove that."
"I thought it might be written on your drivers licence or something."
I had no idea how to respond to that! She called over her supervisor, who suspiciously and grumpily allowed me to purchase 8 loaves of bread. Another little person with sudden power over a tiny detail of the lives of others...

The bread and other baking items shortage is because, completely ridiculously, our supermarkets are allowed to be open but the bakeries have to be closed. So everybody who normally buys bread at the bakeries is trying to buy it at the supermarkets, and the supply chains, even though they are running as normal, simply cannot keep up with this sudden increased demand.
Because they can't buy bread or biscuits, they are buying flour to make their own. Flour is then in short supply. There's actually mountains of flour at the flour mills, but most is packed in very large sacks to send to bakeries. There is a shortage of consumer-sized paper flour bags! So flour is running out in the supermarkets but accumulating in the flour mills.
Utter craziness.

But how long will this continue? How much of this social change will remain in a few months?

The fragility of our entire system is clearly demonstrated by the fact that something as simple as a shortage of paper bags can be so disruptive.
 
@FollowingHim No time like the present to learn how to mill fresh flour and make bread. That will help offset some of the worries about buying. Plus substantially healthier. :)
I've been on a baking spree today. Made apple crisp, oatmeal cookies, Amish oatmeal breakfast cake, and oatmeal-walnut banana bread. Tomorrow I'm planning on making some muffins and perhaps more bread. We'll see...
 
We've been doing the same sort of thing! Haven't been milling flour, yet, but a flour mill is on the list of desired items to buy. But we have been baking, sausage-making and preserving.
 
Did a Costco run this weekend. Standing in the “queue” waiting to get in, and the lady behind me was like “I feel like I’m about to get on a Disney ride!” I turned and laughed and said, yeah, it feels more like a bread line to me. She laughed, but I could see some sober looks from the people around us.
 
Many seeds and seedlings are in short supply. I don’t know if it has broader import but sweet potato slips, seed peanuts and corn seed is all very hard to find.
 
The Revolting Man said:
Many seeds and seedlings are in short supply. I don’t know if it has broader import but sweet potato slips, seed peanuts and corn seed is all very hard to find.
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Search online for slips. We got 100 from Steele Plant Co in TNfor $50, including shipping. They are Beauregard. About to order more... I think 500 is $96 plus shipping... if I can get those I may pot and sell all leftovers on roadside.
 
PeteR said:
Search online for slips. We got 100 from Steele Plant Co in TNfor $50, including shipping. They are Beauregard. About to order more... I think 500 is $96 plus shipping... if I can get those I may pot and sell all leftovers on roadside.
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We have grown Beauregard sweet potatoes. Sweet potatos grow really well out where we are.
Another kind we have grown is Georgia Jet, we tried several varieties last year, but I forget which ones we liked best.
 
You are right, swine aren't food. Bacon is. :D

steve said:
Another side note: A local 97 year old gentlemen was in the hospital with that pesky virus but is out now and doing fine. Did the fact that he is a Jew and has never eaten pork have any bearing on his ability to withstand and recover? We may never know.
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Early outbreaks in NY were focused on Jewish communities. Does a lack of pork consumption make you more susceptible to contracting covid? We may never know.

And Iceagefarmer is both alarmist and not always reliable. But his reports on food plant shut downs are true.

It could be as simple as the pork processor is closed due to covid but not the rendering plant. I've read reports of Pork, Chicken and Beef processors closing. Beef are a little more flexible on butcher dates. Especially this time of year, some can just be fed cheap feed to tide over or turned out to pasture. Also remember pork CAFOs are systems.....sow barn fills the ISO wean barn fills the finishing barn. If those hogs don't butcher when the next shipment of pigs is coming something has to give; there's no where else for the pigs to go, the system has a 5 month delay in supply adjustments and you can't reduce supply if the processors are shutting down cause you can't process the sows either. Chickens are a little more flexible on the supply...11 weeks from egg to table and they can divert the eggs to cold storage or feed processing.

The crazy thing is, some of these pork processors might still be open if the border controls had been honored...

Executives from WH Group, Smithfield’s parent company in China, regularly visit the plant, according to two employees. The visit preceding the first confirmed case didn’t include a plant tour and was limited to meetings in a separate building, another employee said. The visit took place roughly a month after President Donald Trump had banned travel from China, where the pandemic originated. All of the employees spoke on condition of anonymity.
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And expect future shortages, but for a different reason...

Last year, amid a hog fever outbreak in China, Smithfield shifted production in at least one U.S. plant to accommodate the Chinese market. The company did so with the knowledge that the move could create a shortage in the United States in 2020. Smithfield’s director of raw materials procurement, Arnold Silver, told an industry conference in late 2019 that sales to China could eventually create bacon and ham shortages for U.S. consumers.

“Down the road, if this continues and we ship a lot of product to China, certainly I think we could see shortages, particularly on hams and bellies,” Silver said.
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I still generally think it's fishy though. The Sioux Falls plant was the biggest source of cases in SD. That's not true of other manufacturing facilities; why them? And Smithfield closed a WI plant (or two) due to some people there being sick, blaming community spread. But here there really aren't all that many cases, other manufacturing facilities aren't being shuttered over this. It feels like they're aggressively and needlessly shuttering food production.

And it wouldn't surprise me that they'd do that intentionally. That hog fever outbreak mentioned above, it was caused by drones spraying contagion in pork producing areas. China probably thinks the CIA was behind it and may look at this as payback time.

FollowingHim said:
There's actually mountains of flour at the flour mills, but most is packed in very large sacks to send to bakeries. There is a shortage of consumer-sized paper flour bags! So flour is running out in the supermarkets but accumulating in the flour mills.
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And no one will think to stock those on a pallet for folks to buy at the grocery store (and they would too) because that's not a normal grocery item. The inflexibility in thinking in the corporate food supply is staggering.

The Revolting Man said:
Many seeds and seedlings are in short supply. I don’t know if it has broader import but sweet potato slips, seed peanuts and corn seed is all very hard to find.
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A significant number of national seed houses have stopped taking orders in early April they were so overwelmed with demand. Hatcheries are also seeing spikes with some rationing chick orders.
 
As Christians it is are responsbilitie to informed. Prices will go up in all meat veg. And fruit and dairy. Because in order to control buying and selling with the mark of the beast that would mean that they control production it is reallocating production to a few. I for see this getting a LOT worse the writing is on the wall. Next will be rationing electrical, air, and water consumption. I have started preparing my body to be readjusted to one meal a day. That day is fast approaching in my opnion
 
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