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Preparing for a post-virus world

Overt confirmation from the New Zealand government that the coronavirus crisis is going to be used as an excuse to advance pre-existing government agendas. Full article here. "Ardern" is our Prime Minister. Emphasis added.
Ardern laid out three phases for the economic response: the immediate support it was engaged in now with things like the wage subsidy and the benefit boost, a "kick-start" to "reinvigorate the economy" as the country left level 3, and a longer period of regeneration.

This third phase would not simply be about getting the country back to where it was before Covid-19 however.

"This period is an acceleration of what already was our view: that the status quo was not good enough for New Zealanders.

"We were never a Government that was keeping us in status quo, nor should you assume that our view of the recovery should be.

"We needed to adapt to digital transformation, we needed a just transition for our workforce as we made sure we were climate-resilent and climate-ready."

Ardern said climate would not take a back-seat during the economic recovery and that rapid policy innovation would likely be needed.

She was also "mindful" of intergenerational equity, with the young shouldering more of the economic pain than the old, but would not discuss in any detail how she would like to address that.

She came close to ruling out one thing suggested in recent days – a dramatic reduction of GST, saying that "didn't rank as highly" as other options.

This whole package would likely not be ready in time for the Budget in three weeks.

"The Budget is not going to be the endpoint but the beginning of our regeneration."
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"Digital transformation" will be code for moving towards electronic identification (already well advanced), cashless society (already well advanced) and such things. I interpret "a just transition for our workforce ... climate-resilient and climate-ready" as meaning increased government interference in private business to advance climate change agendas. This is completely irrelevant to the virus, and shows how the government is happy to seize any event and twist it into justification for whatever they already wanted to do. And the media laps it up without criticism, because that agenda is the media's agenda also.

The final point, "The Budget is not going to be the endpoint but the beginning of our regeneration", signals that the future is unpredictable as the government may choose to make major changes into the future, leaving businesses and individuals unable to plan.
 
Oregon is allocating $10 million, of its $32 million relief package, to create a wage replacement fund for newly unemployed workers who are unable to access routine unemployment payments for reasons such as their immigration status. This funding, a focus of community groups in recent weeks, proved the most contentious proposal for state dollars.
 
WifeOfHisYouth said:
Oregon is allocating $10 million, of its $32 million relief package, to create a wage replacement fund for newly unemployed workers who are unable to access routine unemployment payments for reasons such as their immigration status. This funding, a focus of community groups in recent weeks, proved the most contentious proposal for state dollars.
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Sheesh, it never ends.
 
The USDA has been trying to destroy the ranchers for decades. Beef cattlemen are just about the last independent farmers left. So the USDA has repeatedly tried to flood the market with import beef or cattle, often from areas with diseased cattle which threatens to damage our export markets by spreading it here.
 
So I said this back in February, as part of a larger hypothesis:
FollowingHim said:
Here's a scenario to ponder. ... A new currency is issued [by China] ... completely cashless. Online systems are established to very easily and freely make and receive payments in this currency globally, making it far easier to transfer and use for international trade than the US dollar - no more international money transfers.
... and China takes over the lead role in global finance.
Click to expand...
Now, China is in the process of releasing a digital cryptocurrency, the DCEP (Digital Currency Electronic Payment). This is a big deal, not just another cryptocurrency or a small tweak to a national currency. This currency is, or will be very soon:
  • The first cryptocurrency issued by the central bank of a major nation as legal tender.
  • The only cryptocurrency legal in China.
  • Not for price speculation. It's firmly linked to the RMB, the value is known and secure. Value won't fluctuate like Bitcoin etc.
  • Far, far easier to trade internationally than the US dollar. No need to use SWIFT or credit cards.
  • Trade person-to-person (phone to phone), not only person-to-store. Can't do that with Visa.
  • The only cryptocurrency that can be traded offline without an internet connection. Remote country locations, in a train in a tunnel, during internet outages - completely reliable, you can always use it. This makes it the first electronic currency that is a truly viable complete replacement for paper money.
  • Supported by major institutions - all Chinese banks, AliPay and WeChat. Already being trialed by McDonalds in China. And this isn't just Chinese support - if you buy anything from AliExpress, you're already using AliPay. That makes it instantly international.
I predict that within 1 year, two at the outmost, this will be the easiest way for any of us to send money to each other, and the most seamless way to buy anything online. Transaction fees will be lower than anything else, or non-existent. And it will just work. It will be regularly used by many people, including many of us - not as the most common method yet, but we'll all be becoming familiar with it.

Those of us who buy things regularly from China will likely find this far more convenient and cheaper than credit cards or international money transfers, possibly even the only option for some trades, so will probably end up using it out of necessity. I currently buy business supplies from China in US dollars, which is honestly ridiculous (converting NZD to USD to RMB, through my local bank (NZ company) -> Visa (US company) -> AliPay (Chinese company) -> recipient's bank, all of which must make a profit on the way, simply because USD is the default for international trading at present). The US components of that chain are a pointless complication and expense, simply using a Chinese currency for at least part of my business would be a no-brainer.

But if every international company dealing with China drops the use of US dollars though, and deals with Chinese currency directly, the US dollar will collapse as nobody will need it any more. And the US economy will go with it.

And:
  • Like every cryptocurrency, every single transaction is recorded permanently. These records are held by the Chinese central bank. The Chinese government can see every single transaction you have ever made with it, and the history of where your money came from before you and what it did afterwards.
This will ultimately be linked to some form of China's "social credit system", internationally, and used to penalise individual businesses or even persons who are critical of China, anywhere in the world.

There are Western alternatives that attempt to do this, Facebook's Libra being the most well known. They may come into use, but they won't be able to combine all the above features, so will simply be a sideline used for some purposes. The DCEP will be mainstream.

This will be a major plank in the changes in the world over the next few years. This is the dollar-killer, and the paper-money-killer. It's also how China can extend their authority across the world without firing a single shot or even technically taking over any other country.
 
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We're in the end game now. Once a currency is digital it becomes trivial to ban people from buying and selling due to wrong think, or not taking the mark.

I see no reason why someone else couldn't duplicate this. The only part they can't is being able to transact with China. But with the world shifting away from Chinese manufacturing that matters less and less.
 
rockfox said:
I see no reason why someone else couldn't duplicate this.
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A major Western country certainly could. But they don't seem to have seen a need for it, and seem happy with the current arrangements. The existing systems of international trade are West-centric, mainly US-centric. Anything that could rock the boat could upset this, so nobody in the West seems to be interested in seriously rocking the boat. Facebook's Libra is the only thing that comes close, and that increasingly seems like a gimmick, as the major credit card companies have pulled out of the alliance making it. It's a messy alliance of many companies, and has no official endorsement from any government.

In the meantime, China has been working on this for the past 5-6 years. They're way ahead of the game and will release this long before anyone else could have an alternative, even if they wanted to make one.

Western cryptocurrencies, like Libra, are pushed at the consumer end of the market, for convenience for low value personal transactions. I believe the DCEP will be pushed at the institutional end of the market, to replace high value and high reliability business trading via SWIFT. It will be adopted fast, as international money transfers by SWIFT are very expensive, a nuisance to arrange, and take days to appear in the recipients bank account. Once businesses are using it, it will be a mainstream option, not a gimmick, and will flow to widespread consumer use naturally.

So yes, it is technically possible for someone else to replicate. But China's way ahead of the game, and the DCEP will completely change the financial world.
 
FollowingHim said:
A major Western country certainly could. But they don't seem to have seen a need for it, and seem happy with the current arrangements. The existing systems of international trade are West-centric, mainly US-centric. Anything that could rock the boat could upset this, so nobody in the West seems to be interested in seriously rocking the boat. Facebook's Libra is the only thing that comes close, and that increasingly seems like a gimmick, as the major credit card companies have pulled out of the alliance making it. It's a messy alliance of many companies, and has no official endorsement from any government.

In the meantime, China has been working on this for the past 5-6 years. They're way ahead of the game and will release this long before anyone else could have an alternative, even if they wanted to make one.

Western cryptocurrencies, like Libra, are pushed at the consumer end of the market, for convenience for low value personal transactions. I believe the DCEP will be pushed at the institutional end of the market, to replace high value and high reliability business trading via SWIFT. It will be adopted fast, as international money transfers by SWIFT are very expensive, a nuisance to arrange, and take days to appear in the recipients bank account. Once businesses are using it, it will be a mainstream option, not a gimmick, and will flow to widespread consumer use naturally.

So yes, it is technically possible for someone else to replicate. But China's way ahead of the game, and the DCEP will completely change the financial world.
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I think you're right in all that. No one in the west could implement something like this so long as the SWIFT/USD system holds political sway. But once China's system gains steam that will change. If US dollar hegemony collapses, I just don't see London & Europe going to a Chinese system.

Thanks for bringing this up, this provides the other piece of the puzzle as to how China is going to extract itself from it's dollar holdings and come out on top.
 
rockfox said:
If US dollar hegemony collapses, I just don't see London & Europe going to a Chinese system.
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Depends on who has the gold and who is short. China has been stockpiling for decades and most of the central banks are reportedly short...
 
So it's now legal here to have up to 100 people in a restaurant, but no more than 10 people in churches (or mosques, synagogues etc). Unless for a funeral, when you can get special dispensation to have up to 50.
Up to now the restrictions have been fairly (though too extremely) applied to everyone. Now the discrimination is beginning.
https://brendan6067.wixsite.com/mysite/post/the-level-2-public-gatherings-policy-is-an-absurdity
And police, and even other government workers, have been giving sweeping powers to enter private property without a warrant to enforce this.
https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/he...rantless-searches-amid-civil-liberty-concerns
 
Seems pretty asinine to allow 100 strangers to be in a restaurant while a community of 100 who interact frequently in a church is disallowed. .. seems that is a recipe to reignite the mythical spread of nonexistent viruses, while stifling community connectivity. ...

They show their colors well.
 
So maybe it's just me but I am sick of hearing that this is a new normal be and we won't ever be shaking hands again and we won't be hugging people ever again. I refuse all of this nonsense.
 
There seem to be two kinds of people right now. Those ignoring this and thinking it's all ridiculous and those living in fear, refusing to shake hands, wearing masks.
 
FollowingHim said:
but no more than 10 people in churches (or mosques, synagogues etc).
Click to expand...

Now you know who really matters and who really has power. Now is time for those of Christ to show whom they serve and obey.
 
rockfox said:
There seem to be two kinds of people right now. Those ignoring this and thinking it's all ridiculous and those living in fear, refusing to shake hands, wearing masks.
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Somewhere in the second group are the mask wearers who won't even make eye contact, as uf looking can cause them to catch it... crazy.

I go maskless and smile, talk to people, etc.

Yesterday, I had to go to the grocery store. They had huge signs for 'entrance' and 'exit.' As I left, a lady directed me toward the further and less convenient exit... hesitantly I complied. On mydrive home I kicked myself! Next time, I will flash her a big smile and walk out the entrance. I am increasingly resistant in every phase of this control cr@p.
 
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